Global average air cargo rates are now 50 percent above their pre-Covid levels following the significant rebound in the last few months in demand and pricing, especially ex-China, according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data.

Preliminary figures for week 50 (December 11-17) indicate that global tonnages and average worldwide rates have been stable compared with the previous week after recovering more quickly than last year from the seasonal post-Thanksgiving dip last month based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.

"Comparing weeks 49 and 50 this year with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), overall tonnages increased one percent and overall global average rates continued to rise, by two percent, with capacity up one percent. The figures indicate that demand and pricing are levelling off, as they usually do in the second half of December, after rallying in the last three months. Although the main driver for the recent increases has been a surge in tonnages and rates ex-Asia Pacific, especially China, volumes ex-Asia Pacific have now flattened although there have still been some modest rises in average rates ex-Asia Pacific, especially to North America (up four percent), on a 2Wo2W basis."

Tonnages to and from North America, and in some cases prices, have continued to recover in the last few weeks after dropping significantly for much of this year, especially outbound, the update added. "Notable tonnage increases in the last two weeks from North America include to Asia Pacific (13 percent), Europe (12 percent) and Central & South America (11 percent)."

On the pricing side, the biggest movements in the last two weeks have been on the transatlantic, where rates have risen 10 percent westbound and 18 percent eastbound, the update added. "Elsewhere, average rates from Europe to Central & South America have risen sharply (10 percent) while the biggest fall has been ex-Middle East & South Asia to Europe (seven percent) on a 2Wo2W basis."

Year-on-year perspective
Taking a year-on-year perspective (YoY), total global tonnages in weeks 49 and 50 have continued to strengthen against their levels this time last year, now standing five percent higher than in the equivalent period 12 months ago – driven by a 16 percent YoY increase ex-Asia Pacific and a 10 percent rise ex-Middle East & South Asia. "There remain significant decreases in tonnages ex-North America (seven percent) and ex-Europe (five percent) YoY although these are far less severe than the deficits reported in previous weeks, most notably ex-North America."

Worldwide average rates are currently 16 percent below their levels this time last year, at an average of $2.69 per kilo in week 50 although they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (50 percent compared to December 2019).

Overall available capacity has increased 11 percent compared to last year with capacity ex-Asia Pacific up 25 percent. Other regions also show significant YoY capacity increases, led by ex-Central & South America (10 percent), the update added.