As global air cargo tonnages for December 2023 are expected to be up five percent year-on-year, Q4 will be the first quarter of 2023 showing positive growth (up three percent) compared to last year, coming from Q1 at -11 percent, Q2 (down eight percent) and Q3 (down three percent) despite all uncertainties in the last months.

"This means that global tonnages for the full year 2023 end up being five percent lower than in 2022," says the latest update from WorldACD Market Data. "While the first half of 2023 was down nine percent, the second half was characterised by an improving YoY performance for each consecutive month and closing at flat YoY growth."

Weekly analysis
Preliminary figures for week 51 (December 18-24) show a drop of eight percent in global tonnages and a decline of six percent in average worldwide rates compared with the previous week after recovering more quickly than last year from the seasonal post-Thanksgiving dip last month. "This slide in tonnages and rates follows the typical pattern seen in the second half of December," the update added.

Comparing weeks 50 and 51 this year with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), overall tonnages decreased four percent, and overall global average rates were down three percent with capacity up one percent. "While volumes went down across all regions, we saw that the global decrease in average rates has mainly been driven by origin region Asia Pacific (down six percent) that recently showed a surge in rates, especially China."

On a regional level, a drop of 15 percent in tonnages was recorded on key flows ex-Asia Pacific to Europe, ex-North America to Europe and ex-Europe to Africa, the update added.

"On the pricing side, the changes in the last two weeks have been relatively stable on a regional level, except for a six percent decrease ex-North America to Europe (following an 18 percent increase reported last week), and a six percent decrease for origin Asia Pacific on a 2Wo2W basis."

Year-on-year perspective
Compared to this time last year, total global tonnages in weeks 50 and 51 remained five percent higher as reported last week, driven by a 14 percent increase ex-Asia Pacific and a 12 percent rise ex-Middle East & South Asia.

Overall available capacity has increased by 11 percent compared to last year with capacity ex-Asia Pacific up by 25 percent.

Worldwide average rates are currently 17 percent below their levels this time last year at an average of $2.54 per kilo in week 51 although they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (up 42 percent compared to December 2019).