Happy Christmas, one and all! If you’re one of those that doesn’t celebrate, why not give it a go, right now? Go to the fridge, open a beer, and that’s basically it. You are doing Christmas. So what have...
Happy Christmas, one and all! If you’re one of those that doesn’t celebrate, why not give it a go, right now?
Go to the fridge, open a beer, and that’s basically it. You are doing Christmas.
So what have we got today? A very brief post.
I know that all you’re thinking about on your first-ever Christmas is the gift of new players. Here’s a narrative for you to keep hold of until the summer.
We’re very unlikely to move on a striker this January. This will be like the Vlahovic window. Too much has to go right for us to bag the talent we need.
You have to hope a team is willing to sell midseason in a league where the consequences of relegation are very real You have to hope that the team has a replacement or at a bare minimum – no major injuries (Mbuemo out) You have to be in good shape with FFP (or whatever its new name is) You have to be willing to pay a premium.My understanding is still that the top target is likely going to be Ivan Toney.
There are a number of reasons this correlates quite nicely with Declan Rice.
Reasons to Believe
We’ve seen him twerking for Arsenal online quite a bit. He’s basically said he’d love to be our striker in the past. Player desire cannot be underestimated, especially in situations where there is a lot of demand.
Arteta likes to buy from the Premier League. It’s his way of de-risking signings. You know they can hack the pace, the load of games, and the general culture around the league. Ivan Toney has been doing it for Brentford consistently, Arteta has watched him occupy all his defenders (a true rarity). He has seen him up close and personal, and I’d imagine it’s far easier for the scouts to get intel on his personality and character because people talk much more freely in their own league.
Like Declan Rice, the player will have just one year left on his deal this summer. Brentford has no choice but to put him on the market. That means the price goes from £100m to £60m —–> unless Chelsea whip up a bidding war, though I think their position in the league this season will put a stop to their wild behavior in the transfer market.
Oddly, you seem to get far more value in the Premier League. We’ve gone from value being in players that can do it, to value in potential, to ABSOLUTE value in untapped potential the eyes can’t even see.
Mudryk —> £90m
Antony —> £100m
Enzo —> £120m
Hojland —> £85m
Werner —> £55m
Oshimen will likely go for over £100m. Sesko will also come with a Red Bull premium. Evan Ferguson will have a monster British tax not attached to output.
Ivan Toney can do all the things those player ‘might’ do in the future and there are still levels his game can go up with Arteta coaching. Premier League fans put far too much emphasis on players they know little about because they look sexier banging in 25 goals in dead leagues. They don’t give any value to players doing great things locally, for weaker teams, in the most brutal league on the planet. Kind of weird, especially when you consider how many big money failures there has been.
Remember, if you spend £40m extra, that’s money you can’t spend elsewhere. If you feel you can get a striker that can get 20 goals right now, for less money, that’s money well spent. There is too much risk in an overseas striker. No one ever remembers the clamoring for big name tactico recommendations like… Patson Daka. People don’t even remember the hype of Richarlison going to Spurs. Arteta will want someone to add something to the team we don’t have… that’s Ivan Toney for me.
The final piece of the jigsaw would be the players we have to offer Brentford. Swap deals don’t always work out, but Brentford might be a good place for Eddie to go to. Smith Rowe will also be looking for a new club in the summer. There are worse places to go than a Thomas Frank team. Even if they don’t move there, the fact they are homegrown talents that’ll leave for pure profit could give us a nice heft in the transfer market.
Arsenal is not in the business of buying squad filler. The only players we’ll be moving on are players ready to compete. There aren’t many that fit that bill in January. We’re probably three players away from a complete squad. A striker, a right winger, and a defender that can offer Swiss Army Knife flex across the backline.
We are close.
It’s very exciting.
Ok, feeling festive now? Good. Go and grab another beer.
I’ll be signing off with a big thank you for all the support this year. The podcast has grown by double. The blog is still holding strong despite a slow year of writing. Working in a sporting start-up whilst trying to manage a new life with a baby has been hard on the words. Fear not though, I am not going to put down the keyboard. I’m going to try and work really hard to make sure I’m back to pre-baby output. So this Christmas, all I’m asking for is a few extra time management tips.
You know the rules today, call your mum, call your dad, make someone’s day with a lovely little message. These days are for the core memory bank. One tip for you: Look at the room you’re doing Christmas in and remove anything you’ll regret having in there. Art direct those photos. I took a lovely pic the other day that was ruined by a Henry Hoover. Get it out the room.
Ok, grab another beer. Here’s the podcast for your escape walk!
Big love, Pedro xxx
