O Arsenal fans, we’re a funny bunch. We lost to West Ham and all I see online is people looking for every single stat that marries to the idea that we’re not good enough this season and Arteta has...
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Arsenal fans, we’re a funny bunch. We lost to West Ham and all I see online is people looking for every single stat that marries to the idea that we’re not good enough this season and Arteta has it wrong with his squad.
We’re 18 points worse off than we were last season.
Our non-penalty goals sit below Forest.
The dominance against West Ham, was, in fact, an illusion.
Don’t talk to me about elite mentality of our players if you can’t look at Arsenal sitting two points off the top of the league in December and be slightly confident in our ability to improve from now until the end of the season.
We banged the first half of last season and we faded. We haven’t banged this season and we’re 2nd. We added a new left-side 8, a new keeper, and a new 6. We’ve wrestled with injuries all season.
Yet there’s not a single game you could tell me we deserved to lose.
Every time people write this Arsenal side off, they go one better.
The same folk claiming we’re in dire trouble were the folk who said missing out on top 4 to Conte’s Spurs was the end, that not signing Vlahovic was a death knell, and they probably spent the first chunk of this season claiming Kai was the worst signing in our history.
There’s too much of a market for claiming the Arsenal project ain’t right. People are far too quick to tell you 40 points halfway through the season isn’t good enough. As fans, we spend too much time worrying about how good everyone else is instead of marveling at what we’re building.
Where are those that said United would bang? Where are those that kept ringing the alarm bells over the progress of Newcastle? How about those in a frantic panic over Chelsea? We forget about them.
Arsenal have problems at the moment, no doubt. But they are luxury problems. We have a system that is producing the desired outcome. Namely, we’ve gone from struggling to create chances earlier in the season, to creating chances that aren’t being taken.
Now, there are a few ways I would break down the chance-taking issue.
Underperforming Talent
You can’t ignore the reality of some of our fave young players – they aren’t doing it like they were last season. Saka hasn’t hit 5th gear, Martinelli is delivering nowhere near the output this season, Gabriel Jesus is a massive disappointment in front of goal, and Trossard ain’t quite there. Kai has only just started to find the back of the net – no doubt his height and power would have been useful in that West Ham game.
So here’s the faith part of this issue: Do you believe that is a talent issue – or do you believe it’s a form issue?
If it’s talent, we’re doomed.
If it’s form, that can switch in a heartbeat.
Talent Issue
Too many people spent the Gabriel Jesus summer that I called ‘Tall Boy Summer’ telling me that it didn’t matter that for 75% of the prior season Jesus played for City, he was tracking BEHIND Lacazette.
‘Umm, actually, that’s not really his game’
Great, well, we’re now in a situation 2 seasons on where our main striker spends most of his time anywhere bar occupying the centre forward position. That’s not to devalue the greatness of Jesus, but it is a reminder that City shipped him out, and Pep won the title by signing a finishing monster.
Eddie Nketiah, a fine player, but his number one attribute as a young player was hitting the target. He doesn’t do that often enough when he’s given ample chances. If anything, he’s become too similar to Jesus. The team functions well with him in it, but he doesn’t offer anything different in terms of profile.
We also have another glaring weakness -> We re-signed Reiss Nelson to a long-term deal, and as I said all last summer, Arteta doesn’t really fancy him. We preserved the value of a player no club had tried to sign in 5 years. This year, his minutes have been fleeting, and pretty unimpressive.
The result of both of the above problems is there is no pressure on Jesus or Saka when they play badly, there’s nothing to come off the bench that truly threatens, and we’re an injury away from having a very long-term bland replacement to either that wouldn’t help us to the title or Champions League.
So what’s the answer?
Arsenal’s for has gone from starting the season with low chance creation, low output. To high chance creation, low output.
The form has to turn. Big players need to step up. Arteta needs to find a way to get people back into the swing of things in front of goal.
We’re either a team that overperformed expected goals scored last season (+11.49) because our players are top-class – or we’re a team that outperformed expected goals last season because we were lucky.
If we were lucky and scoring less non-penalty goals than Forest this season is where we are – we’re in trouble. If my hunch is correct, we’re just going through a rut. It’s the same rut that has us conceding goals with less that 3 shots on target far too regularly considering our impressive defence. I don’t think high chance creation with this team will always deliver low goal output. Just like I don’t believe every team that has 3 shots on target will score at least one goal.
We also have to get real about the talent gap. Arsenal lack a killer. We need an output machine as a striker, but deeper than that, we need someone who wants to play there, occupy defenders, and be an absolute monster for us like Haaland is at City.
We also need someone who can fight Saka for minutes. I would favor a pace terrier over anything, but that pace has to have a brain, and a taste for output. Who can be our Jota? I want more players in the side that have that Mo Salah lust for scoring goals.
I heard one of the reasons Arsenal signed Reiss down to a new deal was that he offers unstructured play in a very structured system. That’s great for coming on in the last 20 when we’ve explored all our other choreographies. Not so good long-term. Is it possible for Arsenal to sign a player with a bit of that Robin Van Persie WHAT THE HELL! Who knows. But I feel like we lack a bit of wow factor in attack sometimes.
So what is NOT the answer?
To panic.
Arsenal dominated West Ham in every single way bar the goal. If we score in the first 5 minutes, they give up, and we hammer them. Instead, they take an incredibly lucky, and ride out an improbable win.
Those games happen in football. If you played the same game tomorrow, we’d win 3-0. Our approach is to control games, create chances, and win points. We do that… a lot. West Ham defended well (because they didn’t concede), but don’t tell me Moyes is looking at that performance as standout… because letting a team have 30 attempts at goal with 8 shots on target, 5 of those chances classified as BIG CHANCES, is not great. Letting Arsenal break the record for most touched in the box without scoring isn’t a ‘hell yes boys’ moment. They were lucky. Play that game 100 times again and we win it 99 of them.
So back to Context FC.
If we win tomorrow, we’ll exit the year the same as we did the last: top.
The answer to our current ‘nearly top of the league’ crisis is for top quality players to shake themselves out of the scoring rut they are in and be more ruthless in front of goal.
There’s also one more area that gives a little bit of promise: We’re top of the league for errors leading to goals. I think we’re up to 5 this season. We’ve managed to achieve that whilst having the second best defence in the league. Unforced errors can be ironed out of a system. Part of this can be blamed on accidents and I’m sure part of it can be apportioned to new players learning a new system (Raya has 2). As the system bakes into people’s brains, the hope is great players stop making horrible errors.
Sharpen the finishing, stop conceding from 3 shots on target, and we’ll be right up there come the end of the season.
Ok, that’s me done, see you in the comments.
P.S. Thomas Partey definitely out until AFCON, but hopefully there might be good news elsewhere.
P.P.S. I’m BACK in America. Podcasts will resume. I’ll get the e-mailer setup again as people have been requesting it. We are go, go, go for 2024.