Hello All, Cathay Pacific, a 747-400F/-8F freighter operator with an order for 21 777-9s, surprised this blog by ordering the A350F. This blog would have expected the Hong Kong flag carrier to instead convert some of its 777-9s to...
Hello All,
Cathay Pacific, a 747-400F/-8F freighter operator with an order for 21 777-9s, surprised this blog by ordering the A350F. This blog would have expected the Hong Kong flag carrier to instead convert some of its 777-9s to 777-8Fs. It is a welcome boost for Airbus after the A350-1000 setback with Emirates.
In this blog post, we analyze the factors that likely led Cathay Pacific to this decision and the potential fleet consequences.
A better freight network fit?
The A350F will share a lot of components with the A350-1000. Despite some concerns about the Trent XWB 97 durability, Cathay Pacific seems to be able and willing to cope with the inconvenience of less engine time on wing.
Already operating the A350-1000 means it is a lower fleet integration cost for the carrier. The A350Fs will be available faster than the 777-8Fs, though this blog does not believe it was a determining factor (Cathay Pacific’s 747-400Fs are still young by freighter standards since they were delivered in 2008-09).
The most likely factor is that the carrier thinks the payload-range capabilities of the A350F are a better network fit to replace the 747-400F. The payload and volume capacities are very close: 112 metric tons for the A350F vs. 116 for the 747-400F, 728m3 vs. 738m3. The 777-8F is a category higher with a payload of 118 metric tons and a volume of 766m3 (around 5% more).
We now discuss the potential long-term fleet consequences of Cathay Pacific’s decision.
Second thoughts about the 777X?
This choice might trigger new speculations about the fate of Cathay Pacific’s 777X order. With the arrival of the third runway at Hong Kong Airport and a deteriorating global environment with higher trade and geopolitical tensions, has the 777-9 become too large for the carrier’s network to profitably operate?
In this blog’s opinion, the carrier can justify operating three new-generation aircraft families given its size. The carrier already chose the A320neo and A350. It will now need to decide on a third one, likely with Boeing to keep some balance with OEMs.
A post earlier this year discussed the tradeoffs of keeping the 777X order (with some 777-9 conversions to the 777-8F to replace the 747-8Fs down the line) or converting to the Dreamliner to replace a share of the aging 777-300s and A330-300s (some of the latter will be replaced with A321neos). Now that the carrier has chosen the A350F, the probability of a 777X order conversion to the Dreamliner has increased.
Conclusion
This blog does not have enough information about Cathay’s network to know whether a 777-9/777-8F/A350F/A350-1000/A350-900/A321neo or A350F/A350-1000/A350-900/787-10/787-9/A321neo fleet combination is more profitable across the network. The carrier will study the matter now that it has more visibility into the post Covid-19 traffic patterns in the context of rising trade and geopolitical tensions.