Hello All, Turkish Airlines announced a firm order for another 50 A350-900s (and 20 purchase rights), 15 A350-1000s, 5 A350Fs (and 5 purchase rights), and 150 A321neos (100 purchase rights). This blog discussed Turkish Airlines earlier this year: the...
Hello All,
Turkish Airlines announced a firm order for another 50 A350-900s (and 20 purchase rights), 15 A350-1000s, 5 A350Fs (and 5 purchase rights), and 150 A321neos (100 purchase rights).
This blog discussed Turkish Airlines earlier this year: the split for the potential mega order and the A350-1000 vs. 777-9 prospects. The large A321neo and A350-900 follow-up orders are no surprises while the A350-1000s and A350Fs are welcome news for Airbus and Rolls Royce.
We now discuss how the aircraft will fit into the carrier’s network.
Single-aisle up-gauging and adjustable growth
The combined Anadolu Jet and Turkish Airlines operate 183 older-generation aircraft: 85 737-800, 15 737-900ER, 6 A319ceo, 12 A320ceo, and 65 A321ceos. Combining previous outstanding orders and the new one there are now 197 A321neos on order.
The follow-up order bakes in some growth via adding 16 aircraft but also up-gauging capacity. Depending on future traffic growth, Turkish Airlines will adjust its pace of older-generation aircraft retirements and exercise A321neo purchase rights.
A welcome A350-1000/A350F boost
Turkish Airlines is another carrier to choose the A350-1000/A350F combination. It is not a surprise because the airline operates 35 777-300ERs and eight 777Fs, but welcome news nonetheless. There is a critical mass of routes where the larger aircraft fit well. The much earlier availability than the 777-9/777-8F might have played a role.
Turkish Airlines has now committed to becoming the largest A350 operator with 110 units: 15 A350-900s already in service, 75 A350-900s on order (25 previously and 50 new), 15 A350-1000s, and 5 A350Fs. The carrier operates 82 older-generation twin-aisle passenger aircraft (11 A330-200s, 36 A330-300s, and 35 777-300ERs) and has 99 new-generation orders (75 A350-900s, 15 A350-1000s, and 9 787-9s).
The A350-900 is best suited to serve the carrier’s heart of its long-haul network. The order bakes in some fleet growth and mostly up-gauging: the A330s up-gauging to some 787-9s and mostly A350-900s.
Waiting on an order with Boeing
Turkish Airlines has not yet announced an order with Boeing. Whenever it materializes, there will likely be more 737-8s and 787-9s. The order tally will indicate how much the carrier envisions growing capacity in future years.
The main question is whether it will order the 777X. If yes, then the carrier will up-gauge some 777-300ER/777F capacity to the 777-9/777-8F. If not, then the 777-300ER will be partially down-gauged to the A350-900. It would mean that the carrier thinks it needs fewer large aircraft going forward.
Conclusion: more smaller wins for the A350-1000
Airbus has won seven new A350-1000 customers this year: Lufthansa, Philippine Airlines, Air India, Air Algerie, Air France-KLM, EVA Air, and Turkish Airlines. Boeing has only won one new 777-9 customer: Air India.
A pattern is emerging regarding 777-9 and A350-1000 orders: fewer but larger orders for the 777-9 (with very high Emirates concentration), and more but smaller A350-1000 orders. It is not a surprise because there are not many carriers that have enough trunk routes to operate a dedicated 777-9 fleet. The A350-1000 is an easier addition for A350-900 operators that have fewer trunk routes.