Hello All, A few months ago this blog assessed the A220 market potential assuming the launch of the A220-500 variant. A blog post last week also showed last week that the A220 cross section is not a viable A320...
Hello All,
A few months ago this blog assessed the A220 market potential assuming the launch of the A220-500 variant. A blog post last week also showed last week that the A220 cross section is not a viable A320 family replacement.
There have been discussions about adding a second engine option to the A220 program. The option is a new CFM (the joint venture between General Electric and Safran) LEAP variant, similar to what powers the A320neo and 737 MAX. Does it make (business) sense?
A limited potential market
This blog estimates the realistic market potential of the A220 program at between 2,000 and 2,500 units. There are 546 outstanding orders and 295 in-service passenger aircraft. This leaves a realistic market potential for 1,650 new orders.
Since Pratt & Whitney has been the GTF launch customer with an established customer base, it is unlikely that a Leap on the A220 would achieve more than 50% market share (the engine would likely enter service at the earliest in the 2030s, when there will have been even more A220 deliveries). The market potential is at best to equip around 800 aircraft.
Realistically, to total number of engines will be closer to powering 500 than 1,000 aircraft. CFM needs to assume it will recover its engine development costs on a little more than 1,000 engine deliveries, including spares.
Conclusion
This blog believes the potential market for an A220 CFM Leap variant is too limited. CFM will produce more than 1,000 Leap 1B engines to power the 737 MAX every year in the second half of this decade. What CFM will likely produce for the A220 over the entire program lifetime will be what it produces for the 737 MAX in one year. The total annual Leap 1A and 1B output is significantly more than the lifetime A220 market potential.
In light of the above, this blog believes the market potential for an A220 equipped with a CFM leap is too small for General Electric and Safran to justify the investment.
