It's almost Christmas and I'm not feeling Jolly. Pittsburgh sports has not been a fun place lately, but there's still plenty to talk about, even if I get a little Ghost of Christmas Future in this piece.
12-18-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
Well, we’re just about to Christmas. Exactly one week from now we’ll be opening gifts, and many of those gifts will be Pittsburgh Sports gear, the way 2023 has gone for most of our teams, here’s hoping people kept the receipts.
Oh, and yes, there will be a Five Thoughts on Christmas Day. I’ve never missed one of these, and I don’t see any reason I can’t sit down and tap something out while I watch It’s a Wonderful Life. Hell, maybe I’ll even be inspired by hopefulness and get crazy.
That ain’t this week, I’m feeling kinda snarky.
1. Cutch Can’t Save Them This Year
If the Andrew McCutchen signing hasn’t taken place yet by the time this drops, it won’t be long. I’ve heard the deal is functionally done, it’ll be 5 million again, it’ll be one year again.
The Pirates signing Cutch before Pirates Fest was always going to happen. This team is arguably the worst organization I’ve ever seen as it comes to PR. That’s spanned management teams, team success and failure, good players, bad players, doesn’t matter, this team has exactly one trick when it comes to a PR win and that’s to turn to Andrew McCutchen. He even named our biggest moment in 30 years, the Blackout Game. Zoltan, he’s right there in the mix.
We all love him. Most of us want him back even if we aren’t entirely sure what they’ll do with him, or how close he might be to the end, but we for the most part want him to reach his milestones with the Pirates and from the moment they brought him back in 2023 Ben Cherrington, Bob Nutting and yes, Cutch himself all essentially decided this was not a rug they could pull out from under this fan base.
Think about it from everyone’s perspective. Nutting and Cutch are the reason he came back, yes, Cutch’s relationship with Nutting was just as important as his relationship with all of you. To even entertain this, Nutting needed to know this fan base wouldn’t have to see Cutch in another uniform to end his career. Cutch needed to know he wasn’t just playing for half a year and getting sent somewhere in July.
Cherington needed to know his boss wanted it, and he was to try to get it done. So even though this is a one year pact, knowing he’s at the mercy of this player hanging them up responsibly isn’t comfortable, I’m sure to a degree. I actually can completely understand this train of thought. Imagine you get a budget to run your household on, and because your boss (wife) demands you have the full scale expensive cable package. You don’t want to take that from your already limited budget, and maybe you can’t get that couch for an extra year as a result. Essentially, don’t give me a restrictive budget then tell me where 5 mil has to go.
For fans though, this time Cutch isn’t just a very pleasant surprise from a team that rarely delivers one on the positive side. Almost fairy tale level euphoria for a fan base that has not been given a lot to cheer about recently. This time he’s a guy they expected to return, and in a vacuum, at his age and level of gas in the tank, just on the field, this isn’t as exciting as it needs to be to feel the team is actually improving.
That’s really the point, Cutch coming back won’t have the effect it had last year. Last year it was one of the last things they did in the offseason and it came on top of a roster the team had already gone out and added to more than many of us expected for the 2023 season.
Now, he’s going to be the first “big” acquisition, and well, you know, it’s just not that big.
I’m happy to have him back, I’m sure most of you are too, but I’m fairly certain when the Pirates try to recapture the excitement they gained from his signing last year, I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news, fans want and expect more this time.
Cutch did produce when healthy last year, so this will help on the field too, but that won’t really have a chance to be the story before April.
2. What if. What is. What Could Be.
The management team has been given ample opportunities to backtrack on their statements as to improving/spending/competing in 2024, and every time, they doubled down.
After the Oviedo injury, Ben Cherington was asked if it would change his offseason plan, and instead of just saying yes or no, he instead set forth to reiterate his desire to acquire pitching, Cutch, and an outfielder. Travis Williams was given an opportunity to take the TV deal situation as a way to excuse not spending, and instead he said it would change nothing about their plan.
The point of all of this, the team has had ample opportunity to take an off ramp as it comes to expectations, and each time, they’ve rejected the chance and instead went further in.
I take a couple things from this. First, whatever this team puts together come Spring, I think it’s entirely reasonable to expect they’ve brought in what they felt would “compete”. They might be wrong, in fact if they leave it where it is now, even assuming Cutch, and show up in February ready for work, most fans would probably predict less success than last season not more.
In other words, you should in every conceivable way hold them accountable. Again, they’ve had ample opportunity to claim circumstances changed some things, and to their credit, they haven’t.
Now we’ll get to find out exactly what Ben Cherington’s estimation of “competitive team” is.
Look, he’s not getting fired after this year one way or another, just isn’t on the table people, but I bet he has some explaining to do. Fortunately he’d be explaining it to a man who has overseen mediocrity and called it success before so he’ll take it in stride and even he has to know he isn’t making it easy.
Fans won’t though. There’s no backing away from saying out loud you’re happy with what you have, while you still have time to add more and have it fail.
In other words, if we get to July and Rowdy Tellez has 350 at bats, a .214 average and 8 homeruns, well, I for one will look back to these statements, or, not changing them at least and take from this, Tellez was what you considered competitive. If we get to July and Mitch Keller looks like the only starter you can believe in, I’ll be pretty irritated and again, I’ll point back to what they opened with and backed it by and have to assume, they thought, hey, that’s competitive.
Fair is fair, if they bring in few additions, and it works, who am I to be upset it was cheap? I just think we have a gigantic list of examples to point to in which not enough, finishes looking exactly like not enough.
3. Things Are Improving
I know it’s not popular to say. I know they’ve done precious little this offseason, and I even know many of the players on the 40-man roster are at the very least unproven, but for the first time since 2015, I honestly feel they have 35 players who have a good shot of playing in MLB that I’d like to see more of.
I am down to 2 names I think they could DFA to make space without first making an addition that directly replaces them.
Canaan Smith-Njigba – I didn’t feel this way, but now that they’ve brought in Edward Olivares, talked about trying to have Cutch play RF a little, already have a situation where 2 of Palacios, Bae, and Olivares could start in AAA (unlikely on Olivares part as he’s arbitration eligible), I just don’t see a path for CSN here. This is about depth, not that I think CSN is the 41st best player in the org.
Alika Williams – If you remember, I called this one back when they decided to protect Tsung-che Cheng it probably spelled the end for Williams on the 40-man. Oneil Cruz, and Liover Peguero are both in front of him for SS. Peggy and Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo and probably even Bae are in front of Williams for second base, and this team can’t hit enough to afford a 26-man spot on a defensive specialist aside from backup catcher. If he survives til Spring, make no mistake, Alika would have to hit his way onto this roster, and I just don’t see it.
After that, man I can’t see any more unless they’re directly replaced.
Baily Falter – is out of options, and while the Pirates probably do want him around for depth, there’s no way to do that without DFAing him to stash in AAA if he clears (he won’t) or making him a starter (I hope not) or stashing him in the pen, which I just don’t think works for the way he pitches unless it’s in a piggyback role. Either way, won’t happen until they have a viable alternative.
Colin Selby – I’m iffy on this one. Partially because despite what we saw last year, the Pirates remain high on him. And honestly, there’s reason to think they could be right. He has a big arm, and if they can harness it, he really could be a useful bullpen arm with options. This one would be hard for me to see them moving on if only because of the options, but all that bouncing back and forth didn’t do him favors last year either.
Max Kranick – Max jumped on the scene with 5 no hit innings and never reached those heights again before going down with UCL surgery. Before he was hurt he was one of the more exciting arms close to the league, now he’s the victim of not being around as he recovered. Holding on to him through his recovery and all the 60-man shenanigans tells me they would prefer to find a way to keep him but as I look at the roster even beyond the 40-man, I can’t imagine he has a path to starting in MLB with this club so he’s become an unproven bullpen arm with options or, a AAA starter which this team will need too. I honestly think if they tried to pass him through waivers he’d be claimed, and maybe you have to just let him go have an opportunity, might not be here. This one is hard for me, Max is a kid who took it upon himself to improve during COVID, and unlike most, took a huge jump while many just “lost a year”. I love that kind of gumption.
Kyle Nicolas – Nicolas has barely been given a cup of coffee, and I know they love his stuff. In fact, almost all of us who watch prospects have loved his stuff. Problem is, things he was inconsistent with, he’s still inconsistent with and potential will only get you so far when things start getting tight on a 40-man. We’re there.
This setup here is part of why so many are convinced there will be trades coming, and specifically dealing from the current 40-man. This could be for MLB help, or even just for guys who don’t have to be on the 40-man as the alternative is losing them for nothing, and we’re just about all out of guys who can be cut for nothing without a twinge of regret anyway.
The other thing to think about is after Spring gets rolling you’ll likely see Mike Burrows, JT Brubaker, and Endy Rodriguez all transferred back to the 60-day IL which would then open up some spots, but on the way there the team will add and those spots might just come too late to save some of these guys.
I’ll toss one more at you, and it’s nothing more than a thought. Roansy Contreras, he’s out of options and looked entirely lost last year. Don’t be so naive as to believe the team isn’t intimately aware of how he looks before they get to camp. Quite frankly if they don’t see a way he can help them this year, he might become someone they cut loose. I think they’d love to at least get him into Spring and hope he bounces back, after all, he was one of the very few locks for the rotation last year, and now he’s not even a lock to be an MLB pitcher.
The last caveat is, if they choose to add 5 more MLB players to improve the team, this number and list will be blown through. You can DFA a guy like Andre Jackson for instance, but you better have better.
If you want improvement, part of that is recognizing and admitting when a prospect isn’t going to pan out, at least not here. It sucks, but you’ve seen it with number one picks, way more in Pittsburgh than any team should mind you, so don’t be shocked when that guy who did that one thing you remember is deemed expendable or better yet, made expendable because obviously better and more proven talent has been brought in.
So why did I call this section “Things Are Improving”? Because this would have been a laughable discussion entering any of the previous 4 seasons.
4. Prospect Hugging
I was just thinking back to a memory of seeing video of this Mason Martin kid just dropping bombs in Bradenton and Greensboro back in 2019. It struck me because I just happened to take a look at the MiLB free agent board. Sometimes I like to see potential Spring invitees, or Non-Roster invitee types. Not because the Pirates need to fish there, but more because as you follow prospects over the course of years, you start to recognize the names of their peers.
Guys from other organizations, guys from our organization too, but you really start to realize, man, it’s incredibly hard to actually make it to the league and more often than not, they wind up just like Mason Martin who is himself sitting on that list, and for some reason seeing his name there, man it just smacked me in the face and I had to write about it.
In that list there are a bunch of guys I at least thought we should keep our eye on. Or it’s possible I’ve proposed acquiring them in a deal back when we were in tear down mode or someone I read did. Either way, seeing names like that, they don’t phase me. I see them every year, and every year I shrug, think about them for a minute and usually just move on. I mean, it’s the way it is, this is a hard game.
Mason Martin hit me though.
Back in 2019 as it had become clear the Pirates were likely to make some big changes at the top, it was easier to send your gaze down to the minors a bit. Start seeing if there was any help coming.
For some of us, and me at the time for damn sure, I’d never really paid a tremendous amount of attention to at least the lower level prospects. I mean, I was at some minor league games or whatever, and I generally knew the top 10 or 15?at any given time, but nowhere near knowledgeable.
So when I first saw Mason Martin hit a baseball a good 450 feet on someone’s highlight reel, man, I needed to see more. And more I did, Martin became one of my favorite prospects, and soon after I’d start writing about the Pirates.
Thank god, I wasn’t the prospect writer, instead I was someone reading the prospect experts as they told me to slow down because he has some holes.
Screw off I thought (really looking back gratefully that I wasn’t spewing all my “knowledge” on the internet) this kid just hit 35 homeruns and he plays first base, and we never have a first baseman and he’s even good at the position.
I’m telling you, convinced doesn’t begin to cover how all in I was on Mason Martin.
Then the rebuild started, and I had no choice but to start thinking about the minors a lot more. I mean, how else would you talk about where things were headed.
Boom COVID.
Know what the COVID season of baseball did for this guy? Yeah, spared me again from making an ass of myself by spitting game about minor league players at the lowest levels doing things at the MLB level few ever achieve.
I learned a lot in that time without minor league baseball. I learned how the rules work for player control, and movement, and the rule five and trustable tools vs fallible numbers and more than anything, I learned if I did this for 20 years I’d still have twice as much to learn.
By the time we were up and running again with ball, I was at least learned up enough to know to shut up most of the time. Still pulling for Mason to prove everyone wrong he instead set out to prove they were absolutely correct, he really couldn’t stop striking out that much.
Add “K rate fluctuates but rarely drastically changes” to my ever growing list of lessons learned.
Mason Martin, completely by accident taught me a very important lesson by doing nothing more than being a pretty damn good looking prospect, until they reach and stick in the league, you can like them all you want, but none of them are can’t miss.
Some of you probably learned a lot of this back with Chad Hermansen who was drafted in 1995 and never managed to replicate the power in the Bigs he showed in the minors but brought every one of his strikeouts.
Some of you started paying attention right when I did. For you, I’m sure someone you bought is on that list, somewhere else, or soon to be there, it happens, it’s ok, and next year, there’ll be another you can take the ride with.
Names you know, are going to start popping up more and more, and not because they’re being promoted.
5. The Ghost Payroll Future
Payroll for a team that considers money a challenge, meaning all teams who claim to not have enough, don’t have enough, are just evil cretons who own baseball teams, I’m just trying to get all that shiz out the way, because while some want to fight about what should be, or even could be if you want to start a cap conversation, reality is, we have what we have, and we know what we know.
If you find no joy in watching a team you are convinced is trying to cheat you, I mean, who could blame you. I personally feel it’s a little bit want to, a little bit ability and a little bit look at how much lower our top end than theirs is why would we try. And not just here.
Point is, we know what it is here, and we can discuss all that other stuff another time, again, for like the thousandth time, if you insist, and maybe buy me a beer.
The Pirates bottomed out their payroll in 2021-2022.
They have only a few committed salaries this beyond this year. It’s been that way really since Gregory Polanco was DFA’d.
They’ve added in Hayes and Reynolds on lengthy extensions for modest AAV and this year I believe the plan is to add another name or two to that list.
All told I’ve heard talk of potentially having talks with David Bednar, Mitch Keller and even Oneil Cruz as early as this year. That stuff is all good.
They’ll have to do more of it too. To guess about who would come next after those few would be to assume any of them are good enough to stay here and even with Henry Davis, man I can’t go there yet. Knowing us, he’ll have a fire season in 2024 and 90% of us will fear he’s too expensive, you know, exactly what you think Cruz will do.
Point is, as this goes on, the Pirates payroll will go up. They’ll manage this by structuring these deals to work together to a degree. For instance, Ke’Bryan Hayes contract was more expensive last year than it’ll be this year. He has a valley built in to his contract.
For players they don’t extend, they’ll increasingly be added to the arbitration coffers. This year was very light, a symptom of having a very young team in fact, they just added another in Edward Olivares who is in Arb 1 this year and could get upwards of 1.1 million. Next year of course barring moves they are only scheduled to add Johan Oviedo who will of course be recovering from Tommy John so he won’t get a whole lot likely and Mitch Keller if not extended would reach his last year of arbitration.
Now in 2026, we’re either looking at an extended Bednar or it’s his last year. You’re also looking at guys like (should they be successful) Peguero, Ortiz, Roansy, Priester either there or right on the cusp if not started on arbitration.
What I’m telling you here is, this team if left to grow together would go all the way through 2025 and likely not exceed a 100 million dollar payroll.
Now, I’d like to think they’d exceed that and push the ball forward. Historically, this is a team that as it comes to the budget is already concerned about 2027. I say that because if their youth movement they started in earnest last year pans out, they’ll have a ton of players on arbitration, and that adds up quickly for a team that counts pennies.
Then you have, what if this guys is as good as he could be!?! What if Paul Skenes is everything we dreamed of?
Well, he’d start this year making the minimum and his first arb year would likely be 2028 and if he’s the beast we hope, who knows how much that would be. Thing is, don’t be so naive as to think they haven’t absolutely thought about it.
Because when other teams sign a guy for 12 years and 275 million or whatever which is like 23 million a year, fans love to look at the Pirates payroll and show how easily that would fit.
It’s true, it would, it could, and all that stuff I told you to ignore at the beginning absolutely applies. But the team, they are thinking about how this team plays out, who they might sign, how much it’ll take, who is scheduled to make what designation when, how long can we spin all the plates without one falling?
That’s not how a baseball team in today’s game I believe is going to win a lot. Not saying it’s impossible, but it’s a lot more work, and you have much less room for error. I already see too much error to think they can do this without some actual outside investment.
I said for a while now, I think the payroll will climb above 100 million as early as 2025 and as late as 2026 if only because it kinda has to. They set the schedule by bringing up all these kids, and to augment it, well, they can “afford it” yes, take all the caveats, but functionally, they feel they can afford, ok, feel better? a lot easier now before these kids reach arbitration than later when they themselves will be expected to be the “high priced” talent, even if that’s a 7 million dollar arb 2 award.
You can bottom out in baseball, but you can’t stay there like the Rays unless you mercilessly move on before you pay the worst part of anything you sign and make out like a bandit with talent, then develop it.
Does that sound like a Pirates set of skills? Seems to me we’re looking at an outside investment but not until they believe they’re ready.
If it sounds familiar, it is.
Owners at the end of the day decide how their teams operate, they just buy smarter curtains to decorate every once in a while. We’ll find out soon if he did at least that.
This isn’t a defense of how they have and I believe will continue to operate, it’s just to say, they aren’t gonna wake up one year and decide they’re now a team that gets that top end pitcher for 3 years.
They might keep when they develop.
They might spend to keep.
They’ll never spend until they have to.
Pirates change, but until Bob isn’t Bob, they’ll always operate under the restrictions he places on top of baseball’s inherent economic inequity. No matter how bright eyed and bushy tailed the GM he hires is.
Every team will be a reflection of their owner and their market until somehow baseball changes the rules. Call that what you want. The boogieman that the Cap has become, or relegation, or contraction or whatever you dream up is the fix. Hey, maybe have Bezos, Elon and Bill Gates buy all the teams and give them all an equal allowance. That’s all that will change owners like Bob Nutting from having the freedom to not risk his investment. In a league where it simply isn’t a risk at all for a few.
Payroll will likely rise every year through the end of the decade if I had my guess, and unless the game itself changes.
Change, Ebenezer, change!
