Both of these guys when reaching Arb 2 were undisputed leaders of their position groups. Both were considered "stars". Both were not scheduled to head out the door as a free agent in the following year.
12-29-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
I’ve thought about this a bunch this offseason, and out of the blue my friend Billy Tissue on Facebook basically asks, why no Keller extension or trade buzz like we had with Reynolds last year?
It’s a great question.
Think about it from every conceivable angle.
Both of these guys when reaching Arb 2 were undisputed leaders of their position groups. Both were considered “stars”. Both were not scheduled to head out the door as a free agent in the following year.
And yet, here we are on December 29th, knowing Keller is tendered, headed for arbitration, we’ve had a vague whisper about the two sides talking extension soon and next to no murmurs even about possibly dealing him.
The easiest answer is probably the most important here, and that’s different representation. Bryan Reynolds is represented by CAA, and while every player I know who is repped by them is exceedingly happy with both the job they do and the treatment of their family as well, fact is they do some pretty unconventional stuff as we just saw with Shohei Ohtani.
They and of course Reynolds himself decided the best way to get the Pirates motivated would be to demand a trade claiming an impasse in negotiations. Water under the bridge, but some of how that played out, well, it hasn’t really happened a ton in this sport.
It’s also more than that.
The national writers aren’t bursting at the seams trying to sell off all the Pirates good players at the moment either are they? Wonder why that might be?
This is why. They can’t acknowledge the progress of a “build” or “rebuild” until such a time as it’s begun to cost some money, or the team “spends” regardless of what it does to the payroll by investing in a player they want to keep. Point is, the Pirates are better now, and they’ve known all along who was and wasn’t available from this team, and why.
As the team starts to improve, well, much like Baltimore, you stop hearing all off season about your star with 2 years left “could be available”, which turns into fake proposals from fake people until finally someone legitimate confirms that a phone call happened.
You know what I mean. The snowball effect of crap as it rolls down Twitter or Facebook.
Keller isn’t getting the buzz for those fairly academic reasons, but more than that, I don’t think, despite the All Star bid last year, Mitch is universally seen as “one of those guys”. I mean, here in Pittsburgh, he’s a Brussel Sprout served to a starving man. But Nationally, I rarely see him on lists his numbers absolutely suggest he should be on.
As fans, we probably are missing the boat if we don’t recognize now is the time to strike on Mitch, or he very much so will not be in the Pirates self imposed budgetary plans. Another half season of doing what he did last year, on a team that hopefully is hitting better so he’s getting his generic win numbers and deeper outings don’t always have to be 1 hitter gems, he’ll get his flowers and dollars.
In some ways, Mitch Keller is more crucial than Bryan Reynolds was. I don’t say that to suggest Reynolds was unimportant in any way, but to ever do anything, this team must have elite pitching. Mitch Keller isn’t that yet, but he has at least close to it in him, and right this second, there is want to on both sides to get this done. If this one goes public in a negative fashion, there won’t just be a team or two poking around, and that’ll be all it takes to prove out my statement on whom is more crucial.
I’ve said a million times now, there are a ton of ways to build a team, keeping your own when you discover and work your ass off to develop them is one I’d accept even if it came instead of high priced free agents. At least it’s a direction, at least it has a building effect that ensures payroll continues to grow, even if it winds up being baby steps, I can accept it.
Hayes and Reynolds getting done gives me hope that at least some of this is part of the overall plan, but to me, you can’t ask for a more perfect combination for an extension possibility in the starting rotation.
He looks great, struggled long enough to both not demand the sun moon and stars, and to potentially even feel a bit grateful for how many shots he got the figure it out in the process too.
Go ahead, give him a raise in arbitration, a pat on the ass and “make him show you more”. It won’t be 6 starts before his Agent is updating his market price come 2026. When you ask players to prove it to you, and they do, don’t expect they’re just going to take the number they had and you pushed back on, lol, that’s gone. Nope, you want it proven, well, you best Rod Tidwell that piece.
I don’t think missing on Keller is a mistake this team can make. It’s not even about believing Mitch is a future Cy Young winner, or better than so and so, it’s really more about having a guy who’s really figured it out, and wants to be here, and taking a five minute look at the starting pitching free agency market.
8 million for one year, for a guy who didn’t even start last year, who I actually like by the way in Martin Perez, man I see the prices out there and all I can say is please please dear god don’t piss around with Keller.
It’s played out quietly for now, but if it takes a turn I don’t think they’ll get a second bite at the apple like Reynolds gave them, I also don’t think Reynolds ever had Free Agency numbers like I’m quite sure Keller will see dangled in front of his nose.
Here are the facts, and yes, you have to force yourself to forget all the terrible Mitch pitching you’ve watched, because I promise you, the industry will the very second he’s a free agent.
Last year, Mitch threw almost 200 innings, had a slightly over 4 ERA and a 1.245 WHIP. A ton of swing and miss which teams love and if left un-extended he’ll reach free agency as a 30 year old pitcher right in the heart of his prime. He’s not at his peak yet, but he’s on track to be right around 2025.
The Pirates plan to be good from 2024 through at least 2028 or so, barring developmental wins and shrewd trades (I know their history, spare me), so one would think, you probably need to make sure Mitch who’s last year would be 2025 you’d want to lock up for at least 3 years of his free agency, maybe 4.
That would be if signed right now a 5-6 year deal, absorbing this year.
Aaron Nola is a great comp. You probably see him as a super star pitcher, that’s ok, I do too, he is. I only point it out because it’s probably not how you see Keller, and to be fair, Nola has done it for a while, Mitch took more time to warm to the task.
Regardless, Nola’s numbers last year as a 29 year old soon to be free agent, 4.56 ERA, 1.151 WHIP and around 200 innings.
As a 30 year old free agent, he just got paid in the year of 2023, 7 years, 172, 000,000 or roughly 24 million per season.
Mitch is going to get paid.
If they approach him with an extension, you’d get a discount in AAV for buying out two years of arbitration, and right this second, there is still an element of risk to Mitch.
But this deal is going to have to be 5-6 years to make sense for the team and I’d be shocked to see them get out of it for less than 17 AAV, meaning 5-6 years and 85-97.
That’s on the low end, I could see this as high as 110. Either way, we’re looking at close to if not the biggest contract extension they’ve ever signed.
This should be, and isn’t a slam dunk.
What I’m describing here, is getting a player who looks like he’ll perform to a 24 million dollar AAV comp, and you could probably get it done for 17-20.
I can’t do better than this to explain why their decision on Keller will show me more about this regime than any other single thing that’s happened in their tenure.
I mean, have you even seen anyone float what Keller’s numbers could or maybe should look like? What does that make you think?
It tells me, if this kid hits the regular season quarter pole and doesn’t have an extension, I’ve got some very big questions about where the established pitching comes from, because I bet if I put that dollar figure and number of years out there like 4 years 80 million for Eduardo Rodriguez, would you laugh and tell me no way they do that?
I bet you would, know why? They never have. But we do have them now twice extending much as I’ve suggested Hayes and Reynolds, so please Pirates, surprise me, do the right thing to keep this ball rolling in the right direction for a while.
