Thing is, at least a big part of the story of this build under this GM is the very absence of a solitary mention of a window, or ramp up, or competitive zone, none of that. They've been careful...
12-30-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
To some, there must be a switch.
Something visible, something bigger than ever, or different than expected. Call it what you want, it boils down to an indication that the rebuild is over and the “window” is open.
It’s part of why there is so much panic about what the Pirates add or don’t add.
Thing is, at least a big part of the story of this build under this GM is the very absence of a solitary mention of a window, or ramp up, or competitive zone, none of that. They’ve been careful to never let anyone know what exactly they planned on as the end game here.
Now, most of us have our opinions, or guesses. Some go no further than the owner and couldn’t give a rip. There have been misconceptions that this GM set up with this owner some kind of almost savings account, you know, what they don’t spend now they can spend later? Well, we know that’s not what’s happening now. To be fair, nor did they ever tell you it was a thing, that was never anything more than a hopeful assumption by a vocal minority. In fact, this particular “rumor” was pushed by two individuals who no longer write about the Pirates.
Point is, we’re here.
We know what we know and we have seen what we’ve seen. Today, let’s talk about some areas I think we’ve learned about since Ben Cherington was brought in, and a few stabs at where I think it’s going too.
1. The Trades
The first thing to mention here is just how little the Pirates have had to deal to kick this rebuild off in the first place. Something I suggested back in 2020 they’d be wise to address this by adding talent to a team they planned to blow up. This would have potentially given them a wider base of players to move out and stock the system faster and hopefully with a bit more depth up to and including MLB ready talent. This could have potentially shortened this effort, but as I understand it, even if the GM wanted to take this approach, the likelihood it would have been greenlit is slim, and yes, I’ve actually heard that.
The other thing they could have done is to move Josh Bell who’s value would never be higher right when they moved Starling Marte. In other words, they could have blown it all the way up right then and right there, even Keller and Reynolds, absolute Oakland Style implosion. They lost the equivalent of 100 games 3 straight years, how much worse would it be?
What they chose, was a methodical piece by piece approach to both stocking the system and deciding which pieces would become part of the core.
So far, I’d have to say the Joe Musgrove and Adam Frazier trades were the best “big” moves they pulled together, but unless some things happen with a few players, the Taillon trade looks like a stinker. The Josh Bell trade an unmitigated disaster, and he hasn’t even been all that good since being moved.
They’ve found one sure fire star in a trade so far, David Bednar. Jack Suwinski has a shot at it, Liover Peguero is just getting started, but is also symbolic of the very beginning of this effort.
Johan Oviedo looked like a potential nice piece in the Jose Quintana deal, but we’ll have to put that on pause.
Smaller deals like for Conner Joe or even this latest one for Olivares, well, he’s done pretty well on those types of things so it’s a bit of a mixed bag.
All in all, it’s early to really know on some of what he’s traded for, but I can’t sit here and tell you I see any “Oneil Cruz Types” emerging from his lottery tickets. Best bet so far is Bednar if you just want to point to a star. Jack has a shot too if he progresses further.
2. Letting Talent Slip Away
Aside from the obvious trades, which are important for acquiring the type of young controllable talent this club feels they have to win with, you also can’t miss on what you do move out or allow to go.
So far, there are very few on this list.
It’s so thin, I might be nice and give you Blake Sabol, truth be told, I don’t see this as a painful loss, but many of you do so I’ll acknowledge on a short list, sure, you’d rather not let this go for nickels on the dollar.
I want to put Clay Holmes here but man, I thought he really fell off last year. I’ll still leave him on the list, again, it’s thin.
I can’t think of any DFA guys who really blew up somewhere.
Any prospects they moved to bring in the small adds they’ve grabbed so far, no big loss so far.
I honestly think in a few years when Andre Jackson is wanting to come back from Japan for 35 million over 3 years we might regret him leaving? But again, it’s thin.
Adam Frazier has largely been a bad player since being moved. Josh Bell has been what he was, inconsistent, but capable of putting on a show.
OK, I got one. Joe Musgrove. And yes, I say this acknowledging we wouldn’t have Endy or David Bednar.
Yeah, that’s my one. And yes, they’d have had to extend him, but he wanted it, and much like Keller as we speak, hadn’t earned mega bucks yet, just faith and a contract.
Joe Musgrove is the one player in 4 years I’m truly in the poopy pants position eating sour grapes. This whole thing is light years further ahead with Joe and Mitch at the top of the rotation.
We haven’t lost a single minor league player I’ve lost sleep over if I’m being honest.
3. Drafts Were Easy
I can’t really identify much about Ben Cherington from his drafts. First, he is on record as being the type of GM who off shores almost all the prep and recommendation work to his scouting and development team, and then blesses his choice based on their work.
Well, having the 1:1, making each selections without either being a reach is straight chalk. If anything, I can give him credit for not thinking he was smarter than anyone in baseball (more accurately not told to be as overtly cheap) by selecting players nobody had in their top 10 let alone top 2 or 3 with those selections.
The draft has changed too, the slotting system really eliminates most of the drama that your 1:1 might not sign.
The only one in which he really got creative was the 2021 Henry Davis draft. Henry was absolutely in the conversation for number 1 overall, but nobody was a lock. And, to his credit, he’s already here to prove it wasn’t unwarranted. That said, they signed him underslot and really hauled in some nice high ranked talents in later rounds using their surplus.
We have yet to see how it plays out entirely, but it was the only different looking thing we saw in the draft. Aside from that, a couple patterns have emerged.
First, he loves college bats, and especially guys who have played in wood bat league showcases.
We now know he’s not afraid of pitching in round one although technically we learned that with Carmen Mlodzinski already, and we know he’s not afraid to draft a high school arm or bat.
4. Everyone Suffers Injuries, but…
All teams deal with injuries, but the Pirates injuries have been costly regardless of that timeless truth.
JT Brubaker, Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Mike Burrows, heck even Roberto Perez, Johan Oviedo, Max Kranick, have all missed or will miss the majority of seasons. I didn’t even mention guys like Jarlin Garcia who never threw a pitch in a regular season game.
The Pirates didn’t have more injuries than others, but depth is a very thin mask on a team that isn’t spending enough to force some MLB talent into AAA.
The pitching staff has never been built to survive anything major. At best they’ve had 6 or 7 you might want to see, and never more than 2 or 3 you truly felt good about at any one time.
So, they’ve had injuries, but as we’ve been in the throws of a build, they’ve never had the depth to survive any of them.
Just now you’re getting to the point where you could survive in some spots because the depth is there, but not many, and for sure not on the mound yet.
5. Development Wins and Losses
This one is tough. Who gets credit for what? What constitutes too long? Is it too early to judge at all?
I can give them points for identifying and at least not hurting David Bednar. He certainly looked like a throw in on that deal and man did he turn out to be more and right away too.
Mitch Keller is a good one, but his might be more a story of timing and patience. Most pitchers won’t get that kind of opportunity and it took a perfect storm to keep the door open for Mitch and even with all of that he was demoted to the bullpen somewhere in there. It’s uncommon patience you can’t count on for future finds.
Hayes has done some great things, but he was a gold glover when they got here in the minors and even with injuries, it has taken almost 4 years of baseball to kinda sorta start to trust he might maybe be a hitter too.
Reynolds if we’re really honest has been very non linear. His bad is better than most. His good is ok enough, his great is better than most. We’ll see if the Pirates can get him to find Better than most more often.
Carmen Mlodzinski was a pretty fast move through the system, but bullpen guys do that on occasion.
Lots of stutters in the middle infield, including Cruz being unclear. Between their insistence to wait to call him up and his injury, we just haven’t seen much yet.
Nothing has emerged for first base. Catcher they almost seem afraid to realize they have to watch some pain with someone or they’ll never develop anyone.
Pitching is the spot where we just haven’t seen enough. OK, Keller again, and no, I don’t care if a player gets outside help. Little secret here, they all do. Oviedo came along, and Brubaker had become very serviceable, end of the day, after 4 years of acquiring, scouting, developing and drafting players, you can’t look at today’s 5 man rotation with Keller at the very top all by himself and claim they’ve done a good job in this area.
To the Future my friends!
1. Top Reason’s to Believe It’s on the Right Track
Young pitching is 75% of the Pirates top 20 prospects list, and a decent percentage of that is close to league ready. That doesn’t mean even 2 of them will pan out, but in 4 years I can honestly say they went from 2 or 3 interesting starting pitching prospects to well over 15 right now, some of which already have MLB experience.
These things tend to even out and even if you have a blind squirrel finding a nut situation here, I like the odds of coaxing a pitcher or three out of what’s right there and that won’t even touch the much younger depth we won’t discuss before 2027.
Beyond that, I’d say they’ve already shown a willingness to lock up some talent, and while I never think we’ll see a payroll north of 160 without league changes, I think strategically they can lock up enough to never reach critical mass and have to tear it all the way down again. If they so choose.
Finally, the team improved by 14 games last year, and I think this roster right this second is stronger than what they opened with last year.
2. Top Reasons to Believe It’ll Never Get There
Easy peazy. I don’t ever see Bob Nutting paying above his comfort zone to reach for that extra oomph you might need when everything looks like it’s come together. Let’s say he has everything in place to make a run, and boom, down goes a big starter. Is Bob going to replace that guy with a 6 million dollar arm, or is he going to let Ben call on some “insurance policy” if you will and go get done what they need to get done to not waste this chance? That’s really always been an unanswerable question, well, for those of us who haven’t already decided what Nutting will do. We can all assume, we just don’t know.
The pitching is behind and if we learned anything from Keller, Brubaker, Oviedo, you know, the guys we call “successes” as far as developing arms goes for the rotation, it’s that this can take a long time. The pitchers not arriving at the same time as the bats puts this whole thing in jeopardy. It’s the boogie man of this whole thing, if they fail here and won’t spend to fix the swing and miss, well, you’ve seen this movie before.
Finally, the coaching. I fully believe Derek Shelton is seen as more of a partner to Cherington than an employee. He has been given autonomy over his staff and how he’s on boarded all this talent. This season he will have more than he’s ever been given, and the ceiling unlike most season won’t be as pre-determined. It also has to be the year he either proves he has what it takes or he doesn’t.
This whole thing is in a good place, so long as you didn’t expect a World Series by 2024. I expect them to pry the window of playoff contention open this year, and if they fail I expect 2025 they’ll get it done, but I make no bones, where it goes from here is largely dependent on how willing they are to admit they’ve made mistakes, and ultimately pay to fix them.
