I think it's fair to say, the phrase "the Pirates need 2-3 starters, maybe 4" has taken root. Optimists, pessimists, and even team officials have acknowledged this need, so it's not like saying it is controversial, but it's also...
12-31-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
I think it’s fair to say, the phrase “the Pirates need 2-3 starters, maybe 4” has taken root. Optimists, pessimists, and even team officials have acknowledged this need, so it’s not like saying it is controversial, but it’s also projected the impression that the Pirates simply have nothing but gray faces for whatever they don’t fill.
Fangraphs does their Roster Resource all year long on their site, and while I quibble with some of their assumptions on occasion, for “covering” every MLB team and their MiLB systems, they do a damn good job. They also miss on things that we simply know to be true because of our advantage of being here. So, an obvious starter to them is sometimes obviously wrong to us because we’ve heard it different, and they can’t be blamed for missing something little here or there.
I say all that not to argue about them or defame them, I say it instead because for instance, in my breakdown of the Pirates Pitching landscape, lets just say Bailey Falter won’t be in my rotation that heads north, at least not right now.
As we speak, Fangraphs has Mitch Keller, Martin Perez (technically not signed yet but will be), Marco Gonzales, Luis Ortiz and Bailey Falter. Again, I disagree, but who cares they’re just laying a baseline.
Today, I think what we need to do is map out who could realistically help this year and who we can reasonably expect to contribute next year. We’ll talk about their options, service time, all of it. Understanding the depth situation will help us understand exactly what we’ll be dealing with.
For perspective, the Pirates used 10 guys you could consider actual starters last season. Injury, performance, trades, all play into this number and I didn’t even count the artists known as openers. So it stands to reason you can’t just pick 5 and pretend that’s all you’ll use or need.
We also must acknowledge, the team still wants to bring in more, and to say it publicly is to damn near guarantee it. So this list will change, I mean, they could even wind up dealing or DFAing some of these guys.
Definitive Starters to Head North
If I leave your favorite off, I can’t imagine I’ll finish this list without mentioning them.
Mitch Keller (R) – FA 2026 – This is the easiest name on this list. He’ll be there if he’s healthy, and he’ll be there even if he gives up 8 homeruns in Spring and suffers intestinal distress on the mound in a game.
Decisions: His Projected arbitration award is 6 Million. The Pirates can of course negotiate this out, or, they could just offer him a contract to avoid it. This could be a one year pact to kick the can to next year, or an extension. They plan to pick up this conversation shortly.
Marco Gonzales (L) – 15 Million Dollar Option 2025, FA 2026 – This is the easiest name on this list. He’ll be there if he’s healthy, and he’ll be there even if he gives up 8 homeruns in Spring and suffers intestinal distress on the mound in a game.
Decisions: Via trade, the Pirates will manage to only pay Mr. Gonzales 3 million of his owed 12.5 million dollar salary in 2024. Now, he’s neither a 12.5 million dollar pitcher, or a 3 million dollar arm, he’s somewhere in between that. A capable back end of the rotation arm. From 2018 through 2022 he was very much so a capable front of the rotation starter before an injury plagued 2023. If the injury situation is cleared up, he should more than earn the 3 million, and if it weren’t the Pirates, I’d suggest the 15 million could be in play for 2025. It’s much more likely they move him before they have to decide to pick it up but you’ve seen the market, if he’s back to himself, 15 million would be a bargain. He’ll be 32, none of this is insane to think possible,?unfortunately, he could be a complete bust too of course.
Martin Perez (L) – FA 2025 – He spent most of last season in the bullpen for the World Series Champion Rangers as he was nosed out of the Rotation by acquisition and to a degree performance. Perez certainly didn’t start out like he was poised to repeat his All Star performance from 2022. That said, this is and has been a good pitcher. Even so, his 20 games started last season would place him 4th on the Pirates 2023 list for most starts. At 32, the soft tosser is not likely to fall off much if at all.
Decisions: The decision on him is more about?how the team does and the prospects develop than it is needing to move him to save money or return prospects. That said, every one year signing comes with that caveat. If the team is charging toward a playoff berth, he probably stays, unless he’s been pushed aside by developing prospects. If they do poorly, he probably goes.
Fighting it Out to Head North
I see this as a shorter list than some. And it may not be who the “best” pitchers or prospects are, but pay particular attention to the decisions portion, that’s usually going to be my explanation when a name makes you puke in your mouth a bit.
Bailey Falter (L) – FA 2025 – People keep telling me to have an open mind with Bailey because he did ok with the Pirates after being traded but I don’t know, I’d say he got better results, but his splits are almost dead even from Philly and Pittsburgh and neither are impressive. I also think it’s fair to ask, would the Pirates want 3 relatively soft tossing lefties in their starting rotation? I don’t know, just a thought here. I’d say even if they brought in nobody else, Falter’s path is not super clear.
Decisions: Unlike guys such as Perez up there, Bailey is under team control through 2029 should they want him, and that’s the obvious reason to try, thing is, he’s out of options, so if he isn’t an MLB player, he probably is getting DFA’d. Now, if the Pirates see his path as murky as I do, I could see him being traded or DFA’d just to make room, because if it comes after a full Spring, solid chance he gets taken, which, hey, it’s the price of doing business and making decisions. I also hear him proposed as a bullpen piece, but I don’t see that either. First, they don’t need him with Borucki and Hernandez, but if they do feel he’s that crucial to keep (this is the part I struggle with) they could start Jose Hernandez in AAA as he does have options, maybe as a long man that makes some sense, but it’s a stretch.
Quinn Priester – Rookie Status Intact – Quinn had a 7.74 ERA in 50 innings last year with the big club. There’s no real way around that, it was bad, his WHIP was bad, his Strike out to Walk ratio, completely abysmal. So why are we even discussing this kid? Well, as I’ve said before, with Rookies, you aren’t looking so much for overt numbers as much as improvement, and sometimes that improvement is in very hard to see things. I find it very likely Quinn starts in AAA, but I also find it very likely he doesn’t look like the scared kid he showed in 2023. I’ve seen this kid struggle for the first time really last year, and I think he’s a kid who needed to feel that, experience that, so he could finally understand why the team wanted him to change things that were working just fine for him. There was a slight velocity dip, but as I understand it, the team expects that to rebound as Quinn surpassed his innings count record by a whopping 78 innings. This kid was gassed, and I’ve further been told calling him up was not exactly a wanted outcome last year.
Decisions: As a full blown rookie, really just does he start in AAA or MLB, and I guess, does he wind up part of a package to return more mature help.
Luis Ortiz (R) – Exceeded Rookie Limit 2023 – Ortiz has 2 options, so if they so choose he could start in AAA. Now, I know he didn’t have what any of us would consider a good rookie season, but he gave the Pirates 86.2 innings with a 4.78 ERA. I mean, that’s not exactly worthy of banishment from the island for a rookie. I will say, he suffered for not looking as good as he did in 2022, but all in all, he has more track laid than most players of similar experience level in this system, and it probably gives him an inside track. He’s also been pitching in Winter Ball, and the results aren’t good. This honestly doesn’t matter a lick, but people will bring it up. He’s just stretching his innings out a bit more, hoping to provide more in 2024 and be ready for it.
Decisions: Team control through 2030 here so any decisions don’t need to be permanent. Again a velocity drop for Ortiz was very noticeable. His reduction was more in search of come consistency and commend with the fastball, but it didn’t help much aside from the hitters who didn’t have to fear one coming for their ear. Even if the Pirates add, Ortiz might be the leader in the clubhouse for the 5th spot. I remain firmly convinced at least one spot will be left for a youngster.
Roansy Contreras (R) – FA 2029 – What can you say? 2023 was a mitigated disaster for Roansy. He entered 2023 as what many considered to be an anchor of the rotation for years to come, and he enters 2024 with fans wondering if he’ll survive Spring. His velocity fell off a cliff, his slider stopped getting swings, his curveball stopped catching the zone or inducing swings. In a season he was expected and stretched to provide 160+ innings for the Pirates big club, he only put up 68.1 and bluntly they probably could have removed him earlier. Either way, and regardless of the reason, Roansy fell off a cliff so it’s very hard to pretend he’ll be inaugurated when he gets to Spring Camp.
Decisions: Again, if they want him, he’s theirs through 2028, but he’s out of MiLB options, so much like Falter, the team will have a tough decision. I actually think all the stuff I said for Falter, well, if these two are even come decision time, I can’t say which one I’d choose to keep hoping the bright lights agree with them. Either this is the beginning of a back on track Contreras or it’s the end to a flash in the pan acquisition we’ll always have what ifs about.
Injured & Returning
JT Brubaker – FA 2026 – JT is in Arb 2 and returning from UCL (Tommy John) surgery that he had performed right as the last season started. At best his ETA for return will be sometime in July or August, and that wouldn’t be for a full on Starting role, it would be more opener or relief if after his rehab concludes. He does have MiLB options, so rehab ending doesn’t ensure he must be recalled immediately. I wouldn’t truly consider him an option for a rotation spot at any point during 2024, at least not a load bearing role.
Decisions: They’ve already made the decision on JT that was pressing, they decided to tender him arbitration. His goal this year needs to be showing the team he is healthy and capable of being via his Arb 3 designation in 2025 a viable option for their rotation. Instead of signing a 1 year deal with a FA, JT could be that guy. In order to have that tender issued, I think they’ll have to see something this year, but not as much as you (a fan) probably think they need to see.
Mike Burrows – 40-man Not Yet Debuted – I expect Mike around the same time as JT, if not a bit later as he had his procedure later. He’s never been an MLB pitcher, and I can’t think of a good reason to think they’d rush him after returning from injury. If I had to guess right now, he doesn’t debut in 2023 unless it’s a last series of the year type cup of coffee.
Decisions: None really, just get healthy and lets hit it in 2025 kid.
I’m not mentioning Johan Oviedo here as a formal entry, but he’ll likely be on track for early May/June of 2025 and actually could factor in to some second half talk for that campaign, although it’s super early for prognosticating. As always, lots of ifs on the road to recovery.
Capable of Contributing
I’m not going to go into as much detail for these. Suffice to say, none of these names will have an immediate claim, but they’re all guys capable of making their presence felt and being part of the puzzle.
Max Kranick – Just returned from UCL in the middle of last year and this should give you some perspective on the returns of others. In AAA he started 9 games amassing only 20.2 innings. AKA extremely careful then 5 innings with the big club out of the pen in two outings. Now, he had his procedure later in the year than JT, so it won’t time out, but it shows the early progression for return you should use as a map. They like Max, and it’s been a while but he had a big arm too, he’ll at least get a shot to be a regular AAA starter and being on the 40 you have to count him as MLB depth.
Kyle Nicolas – 4 games, 5.1 innings, there’s nothing meaningful to take from his MLB stats. I think if the Pirates find themselves forced to use him as a starter some really bad things have happened. Doesn’t mean he can’t improve, just means he’s got quite a bit of proving to do, and that’s if the Pirates don’t ultimately see him as a reliever which many scouts do.
Jackson Wolf – Jackson has already debuted in MLB and he’s on the 40-man, but to see him as MLB ready because he has pitched there is to ignore it was an emergency situation in San Diego. He’s not ready, and really shouldn’t be seen as such. I do hope he spends a ton of time with Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales in Spring training though, he is 100% in their mold as far as style goes but he’s likely little more than a AAA starter this year
Paul Skenes – I personally won’t put expectations of making the league in 2024 let alone leading the staff on this kid. He’s got a ton of talent, but he deserves a little time to get his head screwed on straight and to iron out some things that are very clearly going to be issues. The scouting report that “he could pitch in MLB right now” is cute and probably true if you only need him to get you 3 outs from the pen, but if you want him to be the stud starter his pedigree suggests, don’t F this up by rushing him.
Jared Jones – Many thought he should have debuted last year, but as I already said, the Pirates weren’t exactly anxious to press Quinn Priester into action and I’m told Jones was a risk they were never going to take. For his own good too, they didn’t think he had innings to give, and he’s still working on refining some troubling issues with some of his secondary pitches. I expect him to get a cup of coffee in 2024 providing he continues to improve. By the end of the season, if healthy, at the very least the Pirates will add him to the 40-man since they’d absolutely have to as soon as the season wrapped anyway.
Braxton Ashcraft and Sean Sullivan are dark horses. Ashcraft is at least on the 40 but arguably farther away than Sullivan who isn’t. I like both of these guys quite a bit, but as I’ve already said for others, there would have to be a ton of things on the injury front go wrong to ever see this happen in 2024.
Conclusion
If I twisted myself into a pretzel I might come up with two more but they’d be the longest of long shots and there’s just no reason to mention them. I also won’t mention any NRI (non-roster invitees) they’ll assuredly sign which will send many of you to the nearest bridge.
That’s 14 pitchers I could see getting a shot at starting. 3 I think everyone involved will consider a lock. 4 I think could push for a shot in April and 7 I consider “quality depth”.
And yes, I still think they need 1 more they can count on, if only to buy more time for some of these names to evolve.
We’re likely to lose or move some of this list, and add to it too, but when we claim they have nobody to start, it’s really more about having very little seasoned, trusted options.
Have a Happy New Year, and let’s hit 2024 as strong as we want the Pirates to attack it.
