The Chargers look to unseat the Patriots in Foxboro, while Nick Foles and the Eagles bring their momentum to the Superdome. Who will secure spots for next Sunday's Conference Championships?
*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
**Note – All betting odds courtesy of The Action Network
Mando’s Records in Playoffs + Regular Season + Totals Since 2016
Straight Up: 1-3 (.250) Straight Up: 155-99-2 (.609) Total: 503-285-4 (.638)
Spread: 2-1-1 (.625) Spread: 130-113-13 (.514) Total: 434-326-32 (.568)
Over/Under: 3-1 (.750) Over/Under: 139-114-3 (.549) Total: 433-350-9 (.552)
Best Bets: 0-0 (.000) Best Bets: 46-39 (.541) Total: 252-189-1 (.571)
*Note: Total records date back to 2016 and include playoffs
#5 Los Angeles Chargers vs #2 New England Patriots
Spread: NE -4 O/U: 47.5 DVOA: LAC (4) > NE (6)
All else equal, the Chargers are the better team statistically. Not only do they have a superior DVOA, but LA also has a better yards per play differential, which is worth noting because teams with an edge in yards per play are a stellar 63-31 (.670) since Week 11.
I’m still taking my Patriots, though, in what could be the final game at Gillette for Rob Gronkowski (and maybe Tom Brady as well). Home field, first round bye — those two advantages should benefit New England, particularly since the Chargers will be making their second straight cross-country road trip. More importantly, I think the Patriots’ offensive line, which ranks 1st in the NFL in pass protection according to Football Outsiders, will be able to contain Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. That should provide Brady enough time to gradually pick apart the Chargers’ solid, but by no means dominant defense.
With All-Pro Stephon Gilmore likely to shadow Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon potentially still banged up after suffering an MCL sprain last month, LA won’t be able to do quite enough offensively to keep pace with the Patriots. A date with the Chiefs at Arrowhead awaits.
NEW ENGLAND 27 LA Chargers 20
#6 Philadelphia Eagles vs #1 New Orleans Saints
Spread: NO -8 O/U: 51 DVOA: PHI (17) < NO (3)
The Eagles had no answer for the New Orleans attack when these teams met in November. I don’t expect another 48-7 drubbing this time around, though. For starters, home teams in the divisional round are only 24-35-1 (.407) against the spread since 2003; and I also think there is plenty of cushion for Nick Foles and company to cover given the eight point spread.
Nonetheless, I’d still be surprised if Foles’ magic continued in New Orleans on Sunday. The Saints offense was dynamite at home in the regular season, averaging a league-high 6.6 yards per play and — if you exclude New Orleans’ Week 17 loss when it rested its starters — 37 points per game at the Superdome. Even though Philadelphia’s defense has played much better of late, I expect Drew Brees to put an end to the Eagles’ dreams of repeating.
New Orleans 31 PHILADELPHIA 24
