2023 NFL Net Yards Per Play Report: Bears Cover At Home vs Falcons Michel Anderson Thu, 12/28/2023 - 11:00 We're 11-2 when using this report (and this report alone) to handicap NFL games this season. Last week, I took the...
2023 NFL Net Yards Per Play Report: Bears Cover At Home vs Falcons
Thu, 12/28/2023 - 11:00We're 11-2 when using this report (and this report alone) to handicap NFL games this season. Last week, I took the Miami Dolphins to cover as 1.5-point favorites over the Dallas Cowboys. They won that tight game 22-20 and covered.
This report will be updated following each week of NFL action and contains team net yards per play results from the entire season, the last three games, and home/away splits.
What Is Net Yards Per Play?
The stat combines yards per play and yards allowed per play by deducting the number of yards a team allows per play from the amount it gains on offense.
Why Is Net Yards Per Play Useful?
Net yards per play is a useful stat because it eliminates random factors such as turnovers, botched kicks, and special teams touchdowns.
Of course, randomness plays a large role in the outcome of most sports, but it’s impossible to predict. Analyzing net yards per play gives us a great indication of how good a team truly is. It’s no surprise that the top of the net yards per play rankings is typically crowded with many of the best teams in the league while the bottom is full of sub-.500 and last-place teams.
*The record in parenthesis is the team’s ATS record in that situation.
NFL Net Yards Per Play Takeaway
The Dolphins strong second quarter helped them hold off the Cowboys to come away with a 22-20 win.
As I said last week, I use this report to look for a big differential between net yards at home and away.
This week I'm looking at the Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons tilt on Sunday. Chicago is +0.36 at home this year and 3-3-1ATS. Atlanta holds -0.73 net yards per play away from home with a 2-5ATS record. So that's +1.09 net yards per play in Chicago's favor.
I have no doubt, Chicago covers as three-point favorites.
| 49ers | 1.7 (8-7) | 2.13 (1-2) | 2.05 (3-4) | 1.35 (5-3) |
| Dolphins | 1.56 (10-5) | 0.96 (2-1) | 2.01 (6-2) | 1.11 (4-3) |
| Ravens | 1.21 (10-5) | 0.04 (2-1) | 1.76 (4-3) | 0.77 (6-2) |
| Chiefs | 0.94 (7-7-1) | 0.88 (0-2-1) | 0.79 (4-4) | 1.09 (3-3-1) |
| Bills | 0.81 (6-9) | 1.04 (2-1) | 1.41 (4-4) | 0.2 (2-5) |
| Cowboys | 0.31 (9-6) | -1.06 (1-2) | 0.89 (6-1) | -0.27 (3-5) |
| Vikings | 0.29 (7-5-3) | 0.96 (0-1-2) | 0.39 (2-5) | 0.18 (5-0-3) |
| Lions | 0.25 (10-5) | -0.36 (2-1) | 0.79 (4-3) | -0.29 (6-2) |
| Browns | 0.23 (9-5-1) | 1.82 (3-0) | 1.11 (7-1) | -0.75 (2-4-1) |
| Seahawks | 0.14 (8-5-2) | -1.18 (2-0-1) | 0.59 (3-3-1) | -0.3 (5-2-1) |
| Falcons | 0.12 (5-10) | 1.32 (1-2) | 0.8 (3-5) | -0.73 (2-5) |
| Packers | 0.11 (7-8) | -1.38 (0-3) | -0.03 (4-3) | 0.25 (3-5) |
| Colts | 0.02 (9-6) | -1.0 (1-2) | 0.37 (4-3) | -0.26 (5-3) |
| Texans | 0.02 (7-8) | -1.02 (1-2) | 0.07 (3-5) | -0.02 (4-3) |
| Saints | -0.0 (4-10-1) | 0.36 (2-1) | -0.29 (2-5) | 0.28 (2-5-1) |
| Titans | -0.01 (6-8-1) | -0.33 (1-1-1) | 0.62 (4-3-1) | -0.64 (2-5) |
| Eagles | -0.03 (7-6-2) | 0.62 (0-3) | -0.4 (3-3-1) | 0.35 (4-3-1) |
| Rams | -0.09 (9-5-1) | 0.42 (3-0) | -0.01 (5-3) | -0.19 (4-2-1) |
| Jaguars | -0.11 (8-7) | -0.39 (0-3) | -0.87 (3-5) | 0.66 (5-2) |
| Jets | -0.13 (5-9-1) | -0.1 (1-2) | -0.13 (4-5) | -0.12 (1-4-1) |
| Raiders | -0.16 (8-6-1) | 0.39 (2-0-1) | 0.08 (5-2-1) | -0.4 (3-4) |
| Bears | -0.2 (7-7-1) | -0.08 (2-1) | 0.36 (3-3-1) | -0.76 (4-4) |
| Patriots | -0.4 (4-10-1) | 0.37 (2-0-1) | -0.42 (1-6-1) | -0.38 (3-4) |
| Steelers | -0.41 (8-7) | -0.81 (1-2) | -0.59 (5-4) | -0.18 (3-3) |
| Buccaneers | -0.47 (10-5) | -0.12 (3-0) | -0.07 (3-4) | -0.87 (7-1) |
| Broncos | -0.53 (5-9-1) | -0.88 (1-2) | 0.19 (3-5) | -1.25 (2-4-1) |
| Chargers | -0.53 (6-9) | -1.24 (1-2) | -0.95 (3-5) | -0.1 (3-4) |
| Panthers | -0.77 (5-9-1) | 0.25 (2-1) | -0.57 (3-3-1) | -0.97 (2-6) |
| Commanders | -0.82 (6-8-1) | -1.19 (1-2) | -0.58 (0-5-1) | -1.01 (6-3) |
| Bengals | -0.94 (6-7-2) | 0.19 (1-1-1) | -0.74 (3-3-2) | -1.14 (3-4) |
| Cardinals | -0.95 (7-8) | -1.21 (1-2) | -0.56 (4-3) | -1.35 (3-5) |
| Giants | -1.18 (6-8-1) | -0.51 (2-1) | -0.29 (3-2-1) | -1.89 (3-6) |
NFL Net Yards Per Play FAQ
What is net yards per play?
The stat combines yards per play and yards per play allowed by deducting the number of yards a team allows per play from the amount it gains on offense.
Why is net yards per play useful?
Net yards per play is useful as it eliminates random factors such as turnovers, botched kicks and special teams touchdowns. Analyzing net yards per play gives us a great indication of how good a team truly is.
Who is leading the NFL net yards per play report in 2023?
The Miami Dolphins currently sit at the top of the NFL net yards per play report with 1.72 net yards. They're one of three sides with more than a single net yard per play.
Kansas (1.68) and San Francisco (1.46) are the other two.