Baltimore is the 3.5-point home chalk over Miami in their NFL Week 17 game and the Ravens are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games against the Dolphins. Read on for our best bet for the game here. The...
The Baltimore Ravens are 3.5-point home favorites over the Miami Dolphins in their Week 17 NFL game on Sunday, December 31 Baltimore is 9-2 against the spread in the last 11 games against Miami The Dolphins are 3-8 straight up in those past 11 games facing the Ravens. Who’s the best bet in our Week 17 Dolphins vs Ravens picks?The last time the Miami Dolphins (11-4, 9-5-1 ATS) made a trip to face the Baltimore Ravens (12-3, 10-5 ATS), they came home with something for the first time since 1997 – a victory. The Dolphins beat the Ravens 42-38 in Week 2 last season. Will they upset the Dolphins vs Ravens odds and do so again on Sunday?
Can Miami do it again? The Dolphins haven’t won back-to-back games in Maryland since 1983, when Baltimore’s NFL team was the Colts.
Oddsmakers don’t see Miami turning two. It’s Baltimore that is set as 3.5-point home favorites in the Dolphins vs Ravens odds. Miami is 2-9 against the spread in the the club’s last 11 games against Baltimore.
Dolphins vs Ravens Odds
| Miami Dolphins | +150 | +3.5 (-120) | Over 46.5 (-115) |
| Baltimore Ravens | -175 | -3.5 (EVEN) | Under 46.5 (-105) |
In the Miami vs Baltimore odds, the Ravens are -175 moneyline favorites, giving them an 63.64% implied win probability. The total is set at 46.5 points. Four of the last five Dolphins vs Ravens games have gone over.
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Kickoff for this game at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday, December 31, is set for 1:00 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by CBS.
Miami vs Baltimore Betting Trends
In the NFL public betting splits at the time of this writing, spread bettors are liking the Dolphins. Miami is getting 68% of handle in the spread splits. Moneyline players are backing Baltimore. The Ravens are pulling 76% of moneyline wagers.
These are two of the best ATS teams in the NFL this season. Baltimore (10-5) shares the league lead in covering, while Miami (9-5-1) is just a tick behind. The Ravens are 5-0 straight up in their past five games. Miami is 5-1 SU in the past six games.
Eleven of Miami’s last 15 road games have gone over. Four of Baltimore’s last five home games have also gone over.
The Ravens are the chalk to win the AFC in the NFL Conference odds at +185. The Dolphins are set with second-best odds of +325 to wear the crown as AFC champions.
Top Spot In AFC Up for Grabs
The opportunity to grab the #1 seed in the AFC and with it a first-round playoff bye is on the line as the AFC East-leading Dolphins visit the AFC North-leading Ravens. And it will be a contrast in styles on display.
Miami is the NFL’s most productive offense. The Dolphins churn out 411.46 yards of offense each week. Baltimore is the NFL’s stingiest defense. The Ravens are allowing an NFL-low 16.3 points per game.
The #Dolphins have officially ruled out WR Jaylen Waddle against the #Ravens with his high-ankle sprain.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 29, 2023
Experts at disguising coverages, Baltimore leads the league in sacks (53) and takeaways (26). The Ravens allow an NFL-best 4.5 yards per play.
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill needs just 59 yards in receptions for 1,700 on the season. However, he’ll be missing his partner in crime. Miami WR Jaylen Waddle (high ankle sprain) is out for this game. He’s already gone over 1,000 yards in receptions for a franchise-record third successive season.
Tua vs Lamar a Spectacular Undercurrent
In Miami’s 42-38 win last season at Baltimore, both quarterbacks went off. For the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six TDs, four of them in the fourth quarter as he rallied Miami to the victory. Tua’s passer rating was 124.1.
The last time the Dolphins and Ravens faced off, Miami did the unthinkable. A 21-point comeback win.
The rematch is about to be a MOVIE. ??
?: #MIAvsBAL — Sunday 1pm ET on CBS
?: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/PAe5cGgJmM
— NFL (@NFL) December 29, 2023
His counterpart Lamar Jackson was no slouch. Currently the favorite in the NFL MVP odds, Jackson three for three TDs, 318 yards and a passer rating of 142.6. He also ran for 119 yards on nine carries, including a 79-yard TD scamper.
Dolphins vs Ravens Prediction
A Baltimore win clinches top seed in the AFC for the Ravens. The Ravens are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five home games, with wins in that span over the Lions, Seahawks, Bengals and Rams.
Baltimore is the only NFL team in the top five in offensive, defensive, and special teams DVOA. Last week, the Ravens took the 49ers, the NFC’s top seed, to the woodshed in San Francisco.
Meanwhile, last week’s home-field win over Dallas marked the first time all season that Miami beat a team with a winning record.
Dolphins vs Ravens Picks: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (EVEN)
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