Will Kendrick Lamar perform his biggest hits at the Super Bowl LIX halftime show? We analyzed recent acts to make our playlist prediction.
Kendrick Lamar is no stranger to collecting accolades. The rapper boasts 17 Grammy Awards, a Pulitzer Prize for Music, a Primetime Emmy Award, and a nomination for an Academy Award. He has four No. 1 albums and has landed 88 songs on the Billboard Hot 100 Chart, with five also reaching the peak position. This year, he’ll perform in the coveted slot as headliner for the halftime show at Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans, following in the footsteps of music legends like the Rolling Stones, Diana Ross, Prince, and Bruce Springsteen.
Lamar isn’t joking when he sings he’s “not like us.”
Breaking down the hits of the past
Naturally, the moment the musical act for the halftime show is announced, fans begin speculating about what the setlist will look like. Conventional wisdom says audiences should expect to hear Lamar’s most popular tracks. So we decided to look back on the acts that performed in the 2020s to see how well this idea holds up by examining how many Top 10 hits made it into their shows. You can read our analysis below, or jump to our data visualizations below of halftime performers and the Billboard charts.
This is not a perfect breakdown. Singers often don’t perform a full version of a song, and often they perform songs mixed as part of medleys. In such cases, we counted only the highest-charting song by the headliner. Fans may still debate what counts as a single song versus a song that’s part of a medley. The numbers for the setlists are intended to provide a general understanding, with songs that didn’t make the Top 10 in italics.
Super Bowl LIV
Performers: Shakira and Jennifer Lopez
Billboard Top 10 hits at the time: 12 (combined)
Number of Top 10 hits in setlist: 8 out of 16
Songs: “Dare (La La La),” “She Wolf,” “Empire,” “Ojos así,” “Whenever, Wherever,” “I Like It,” “Chantaje” Medley, “Hips Don’t Lie,” “Jenny from the Block,” “Ain’t It Funny,” “Get Right,” “Waiting for Tonight,” “Love Don’t Cost a Thing” Medley, “On the Floor,” “Let’s Get Loud” Medley, “Waka Waka (This Time for Africa)”
We may have had a double dose of Latin pop in this performance, but JLo and Shakira combined actually had a lower number of Top 10 hits to choose from than some of their fellow headliners, which may have depressed their count. At the same time, they packed in the highest number of songs. All total, about half of the songs in their setlist were Top 10s, with an assist from Cardi B’s “I Like It.”
Super Bowl LV
Performer: The Weeknd
Billboard Top 10 hits at the time: 13
Number of Top 10 hits in setlist: 8 out of 9
Songs: “Call Out My Name,” “Starboy,” “The Hills,” “Can’t Feel My Face,” “I Feel It Coming,” “Save Your Tears,” “Earned It,” “House Of Balloons,” “Blinding Lights”
The Weeknd had only one more Top 10 hit to choose from than his predecessors, but he made the most of his crowd-pleasers. And he did it without any guests. Almost 90% of his choices reached the Top 10, including five going to No. 1.
Super Bowl LVI
Performers: Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Eminem, Mary J. Blige, Kendrick Lamar
Billboard Top 10 hits at the time: 53 (combined)
Number of Top 10 hits in setlist: 4 out of 11
Songs: “The Next Episode,” “California Love,” “In da Club,” “Family Affair,” “No More Drama,” “M.A.A.D City,” “Alright,” “Forgot About Dre,” “Lose Yourself,” “I Ain’t Mad at Cha,” “Still D.R.E.”
This won’t be Lamar’s first time performing at the Super Bowl. Despite boasting the highest combined number of chart-topping songs in their music catalogs, this hip-hop supergroup performed the lowest number of Top 10s at just 36%. And one of their notable No. 1s actually came from guest performer 50 Cent, when he took to the stage for “In da Club.”
Super Bowl LVII
Performer: Rihanna
Billboard Top 10 hits at the time: 32
Number of Top 10 hits in setlist: 10 of 13
Songs: “What’s My Name?” “Bitch Better Have My Money,” “Where Have You Been,” “Only Girl (In the World),” “We Found Love,” “Rude Boy,” “Work,” “Wild Thoughts,” “Pour It Up,” “All of the Lights,” “Run This Town,” “Umbrella,” “Diamonds”
Rihanna had an extensive array of options to choose from and ultimately decided to focus on her most popular songs. Discounting the deep cuts in the interludes, more than three-quarters of her songs were Top 10 hits, with every chosen song charting no lower than No. 19.
Super Bowl LVIII
Performer: Usher
Billboard Top 10 hits at the time: 19
Number of Top 10 hits in setlist: 11 of 11
Songs: “My Way,” “Caught Up,” “Love in this Club,” “If I Ain’t Got You,” “My Boo,” “Confessions Part II,” “Burn,” “U Got It Bad,” “OMG,” “Turn Down for What,” “Yeah!”
Usher refused to waste a second on stage for any song that wasn’t a bona fide hit. Every song in his setlist achieved Top 10 status, including seven that reached No. 1.
Selecting the setlist
Based on this slice of musical history, it’s a safe bet to assume that as Lamar pieces together his performance, he’s thinking about songs that have had the most airplay and streams throughout his career. But it may not be as simple as choosing from his 22 Top 10 hits.
Lamar is the first rapper to ever earn the honor of performing as a solo act at the halftime show, so we are in uncharted territory. But, appealing to the masses by bringing out acts popular with the Top 40 crowd may not be his prerogative. Don’t expect Maroon 5 to return to the stage for “Don’t Wanna Know” or Taylor Swift to show up for the remix of “Bad Blood,” even if it technically was his first No. 1 hit.
Instead, he’s likely to showcase his genre and could pull out songs that may have performed well overall but were even more popular on the rap and hip-hop charts. From his second album, Good Kid, M.A.A.D. City, the tracks “Swimming Pools (Drank)” and “B****, Don’t Kill My Vibe” climbed to solid positions on the Hot 100 chart, reaching No. 17 and 32 respectively, and could capture the crowd’s attention. Meanwhile, his critically acclaimed album, To Pimp a Butterfly, offers “King Kunta” as another popular option, even though it only made it to No. 58.
He also has plenty of Top 10s to consider. Lamar could possibly invite The Weeknd and SZA to join him to perform his two collaborations from the Black Panther soundtrack, “Pray for Me” and “All the Stars,” which both peaked at No. 7. And pulling from his Pulitzer Prize winning album Damn, he can add his No. 1 hit “Humble” to the setlist. (“Loyalty,” from the same album, may not have cracked the Top 10, but who wouldn’t want to see Rihanna return?)
Then there are Lamar’s more recent album and song releases. If he’s just choosing based on Top 10s, the GNX album presents a conundrum. Seven of the 12 songs on the album landed in the Top 10, so he could simply choose “Squabble Up,” “TV Off,” and “Luther” if he wants to reward first, second, and third place from that album. Music titans taking over the Hot 100 chart upon the release of their albums seem to be becoming more common, with acts like Taylor Swift and Drake also pulling off the feat.
And since we name-dropped Drake, we have to mention the rap feud that has reshaped the charts. The recent beef between Lamar and Drake, kicked off by the single, “Like That,” resulted in Lamar earning three new Top 10s, including two No. 1s. “Like That” and “Not Like Us” both topped the charts, so expect to see Lamar take his victory lap in front of the world. Sorry Drake.
Will he go the conventional route? Or are we in for some deep cuts? Whatever Lamar decides, history is being made at this year’s show for the rap genre.
Back up your insights with data
We live in a data-driven world. With Domo, you can swiftly transform large swaths of data, like the history of the Billboard charts, into organized data sets that are ready to be graphed and analyzed. Curious? Reach out today to learn how the Domo platform can help you find the meaning in your data.
