San Diego Housing Market 2024 The San Diego housing market remains robust, characterized by strong demand and limited inventory. Despite rising prices and competition, the city's desirable lifestyle and diverse housing options continue to attract buyers. Affordability challenges persist, but the market's resilience and enduring appeal make it a compelling area for real estate activity and investment. January 2024 San Diego Housing Market San Diego Real Estate Market Trends San Diego Real Estate Statistics For Single Family San Diego Real Estate Statistics For Condos & Townhomes Relocation Trends To and From San Diego San Diego Homes For Sale Updated May 1st 2024  Once again, April demonstrated the remarkable resilience of the San Diego real estate market. Despite ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, persistent inflation, increasing office market defaults, escalating political divisions, and a slowdown in GDP growth, the market remained steadfast. Additionally, there was a rapid shift in expectations around rate cuts, with initial anticipation of cuts in June and beyond giving way to the possibility of only one cut later in the year, or perhaps none at all, and even the potential for a rate hike. Mortgage rates have once again risen, with the 10-year treasury now exceeding 4.6%, a significant increase from the beginning of the year. However, the inexorable rhythm of life continues to influence markets, with some crypto-related fortunes soaring while others experience more modest portfolio returns amid fluctuations in equities. Life events such as marriages, births, deaths, divorces, new fortunes, lost fortunes, inheritances, graduations, and career moves persist without pause. Additionally, astute buyers and sellers are aware that when rates eventually decrease, a herd mentality is likely to emerge, potentially leading to a surge in both purchases and listings. This trend is already evident in the UK. As we transition into the typically lively phase of the Spring market following Easter, Passover, and school spring breaks, we observe a slight easing of inventory shortages in some areas, while they persist in others. This is often discernible early on through the increased number of calls and email inquiries from agents inquiring about upcoming listings and off-market opportunities. The majority of sellers have acknowledged that despite recent NAR-related lawsuits concerning agent commissions, certain realities remain unchanged: Conducting business in the US comes with high costs, particularly when engaging the services of top-tier agents. 1. It is not advisable to discourage buyer agents by withholding their commission, especially considering that over 85% of buyers rely on professional representation, advice, and guidance when making a purchase. 2. Dis-incentivizing real estate agents that represent buyers by not paying a fee is unwise at best when over 85% of buyers seek professional representation, advisory and guidance when buying. 3. We have yet to meet a seller who will pass on any of their savings to a buyer, and we have yet to witness a buyer not negotiate harder on price when they have to pay their buyer agent commissions. Scroll Down For Single Family Homes and Condo Market Stats Broken Down By Price Bracket. Updated April 1st 2024  In March, there was a significant surge in single-family home sales, with an increase of more than 13 percent compared to February. Additionally, attached property sales (condominiums and townhomes) also experienced a notable uptick of more than 5 percent. However, year over year, there was a decline of 11 percent in sales of existing single-family homes and a 7 percent decrease for condos and townhomes. The median price of resale homes continues to exhibit strong growth, with single-family home prices rising by 3 percent in just one month and attached properties increasing by more than 2 percent. Year over year, prices have seen an impressive 8 percent rise. Presently, the median price of a single-family home stands at $1,050,000, while condos and townhomes are priced at $670,000. Homes are selling quickly, with an average escrow period of about four weeks. As we approach the beginning of 2024, what has been a challenging prior year for the real estate industry, characterized by limited inventory across various property types, markedly higher interest rates, increased inflation, and concerns about recession, we eagerly anticipate 2024. Those who believed the booming markets of 2021 and 2022 would endure indefinitely were mistaken. Similarly, those who anticipate that the current subdued real estate market, marked by one of the most significant housing market recessions, will persist indefinitely are equally misguided. Could the vibrant market of the 2020s make a resurgence? High interest rates are not deterring individuals from eventually engaging in real estate transactions; they are simply postponing the inevitable. There will always be a demand for real estate transactions, and these opportunities will eventually materialize. Interest rates are expected to decline. Life events such as death, divorce, marriage, children, upsizing, downsizing, career relocations, financial losses, education, and health needs have compelled many to engage in real estate activity, regardless of market conditions. The substantial intergenerational wealth transfer of $70 trillion will dwarf the recent $7 trillion stimulus. This wealth transfer gained momentum in 2023, fueling an increase in cash reserves for real estate purchases. This trend is anticipated to continue. Inflation has notably receded from its peak of over 9%. Supply chain disruptions were the primary driver of inflation, and these disruptions have largely been resolved. De-globalization and potentially higher tariffs are expected to maintain inflation at a slightly elevated level. The delayed effects of high interest rates have yet to materialize. These effects could prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates sooner and at a faster pace. Baby boomer buyers and sellers, equipped with substantial equity, wealth, and cash, will continue to influence the high-end real estate markets. Moreover, they are gifting younger generations to assist them with affordability. It is important to recognize and celebrate their contributions. (Approximately 10,000 baby boomers retire daily.) In an environment characterized by underbuilding, rising wages, shortages of skilled labor, high immigration, higher interest rates, aging housing stock, increased weather-related losses, and inefficient regulation, it is likely that home prices will continue to rise over the long term. Those who made real estate purchases in 2023 may be adhering to the Buffet-Munger rule: acquiring quality assets at a fair price. This approach has proven to be successful for them, hasn't it? HAPPY HOLIDAYS! San Diego's coastal luxury market has always been closely tied to Wall Street: The first quarter of 2024 has ended with the DOW up over 5.5% in just 3 months, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are up close to 11%! Bitcoin is up 65%. You know the wealthy are doing well when there are eleven sales over $10M in the first quarter. 1127 F Ave $28,000,0007310 Vista Del Mar Ave $21,225,000 2016 Ocean Front $18,500,0005801 Lago Lindo $16,400,0007404 Hillside Dr $15,206,000919 Ocean Blvd $13,515,0005740 Dolphin Pl $13,500,000579 San Elijo St $11,700,0004592 Rancho Del Mar Trail $10,500,00017222 Avenida De Acacias $10,500,0001864 Crest Dr $10,000,000 Between January and September 2023, over 17,000 homes were sold, marking a decline of more than a quarter compared to the previous year. However, San Diego's housing market has been fortunate enough to experience steady price increases despite interest rates exceeding 7%. Over the past year, both single-family and attached homes have seen a 10% increase in value, with detached homes reaching the $1 million mark and attached homes averaging $660,000. Sales declined across all price ranges, with a one-third drop in under $1 million detached homes and a 29% decline in over $1 million detached homes. Interest rates were expected to decrease in late 2023, but the Federal Reserve has yet to make any moves. It's likely that President Biden has other priorities on his agenda than the housing market. This week the median list price for San Diego, CA is $1,372,500 with the market action index hovering around 57. This is less than last month's market action index. Inventory has decreased to 332. The market has been cooling over time and prices have recently flattened. Despite the consistent decrease in Market Action Index (MAI), we’re in a Seller’s Market (where significant demand leaves little inventory available). If the MAI begins to climb, prices will likely follow suit. If the MAI drops consistently or falls into the Buyer’s zone, watch for downward pressure on prices. Inventory has been falling lately. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply.  Each segment below represents approximately 25% of the market ordered by price. Median PriceSq. Ft.Lot SizeBedsBathAgeNewAbsorbedDOM $3,499,000 3,889 0.25 - 0.5 acre 4 4.5 23 1 18 70 $1,675,000 2,024 4,500 - 6,500 sqft 3 2.5 52 6 19 49 $1,149,000 1,554 6,500 - 8,000 sqft 3 2 60 10 30 35 $765,000 1,296 6,500 - 8,000 sqft 3 2 63 17 34 35 Have a question for me on the market? Comment below now! Relocation Trends In San Diego CA From January '24 to March '24, 29% of homebuyers in San Diego sought to relocate outside of the city, while 71% were interested in remaining within the metropolitan area. San Diego Migration Trends Los Angeles homebuyers searched to move to San Diego more than any other metro followed by San Francisco, Dallas, Seatle, and New York. Las Vegas was the most popular destination to relocate from San Diego followed by Phoenix, Nashville, and Boise. San Diego Real Estate Market San Diego real estate market data for MiniLUXE single-family homes priced under $1M compares April 2024 from April 2023 The average total market time was 27 days   The absorption rate is 1 month The average price per square foot is $550.  There were 686 new listings down 10.1%. There were 462 total pending sales down 15.4% and 536 total sold down 20.6% San Diego real estate market data for MidiLUXE single-family homes priced $1,000,000-$3,000,000 compares April 2024 from April 2023   The average total market time was 19 days  The absorption rate is at 1.9 months The average price per square foot is $726.  There were 871 new listings up 41.6%. There were 287 total pending sales and 628 total sold  San Diego real estate market data for CenterLUXE single-family homes priced $3,000,000-$5,000,000 compares April 2024 from April 2023   The average market time was 28 days  The absorption rate is at 4.5 months The average price per square foot is $1059.  There were 93 new listings  There were 62 total pending sales up 19.2% and 66 total sold up 34.7% San Diego real estate market data for UltraLUXE single-family homes priced $5,000,000+ compares April 2024 from April 2023 The average market time was 47 days   The absorption rate is at 10 months New listings 67 up 28.8% The average price per square foot is $1,796.  There were 67 new listings There were 29 total pending sales 23 total sold  San Diego condo market data for all MiniLUXE condos, townhomes, penthouses, and rowhomes priced under $1M compares April 2024 from April 2023 The average market time was 22 days  The absorption rate is 2.8 months The average price per square foot is $591. There were 753 new listings up 18% There were 578 total pending sales down 7.7% and 562 total sold condos down 10.8%  San Diego condo market data for all MidiLUXE condos, townhomes, penthouses, and rowhomes priced $1M-$3M compares April 2024 from April 2023 The average market time was 25 days down 26.5% The absorption rate is up at 2.9 months up 45% The average price per square foot is $935. There were 211 new listings up 44.5% There were 135 total pending sales up 42.1% and 125 total sold condos up 38.9% San Diego condo market data for all CenterLUXE condos, townhomes, penthouses, and rowhomes priced $3M-$5M compares April 2024 from April 2023 The average market time was 57 days up 46.2% The absorption rate is at 5.9 months. The average price per square foot is $1,382. There were 15 new listings  There were 7 total pending sales 5 total sold condos  San Diego condo market data for all UltaLUXE condos, townhomes, penthouses, and rowhomes priced $5M+ compares April 2024 from April 2023 The absorption rate is at 9.4 months. There was 1 new listing   There was 0 total pending sale  There was 1 sold Have a question for me on the market? Comment below now! 2023 is looking to be be modestly recessionary, with the Feds near the top of interest rate increases. As the Democrats prepare for the 2024 election, pressure will come from the White House and Senate to reduce mortgage rates and inflation. The majority of inflation was related to supply problems related to shipping and computer chips as well as gas prices.Homeowner equity has almost doubled In the past decade home equity has doubled and 1/3 of all San Diego homeowners are morgage free. While residential construction will decline 20-25%, non residential construction will continue without pause: six new hospitals, life sciences, military, educational, and apartment construction. We are not only seeing signs of inflation coming down, but clear signs of DEFLATION:1. Rental prices soared through Summer 2022, but have scaled back starting in October. Check out the rental price reductions on Zillow Rentals!2. There are small to substantial price reductions depending on the community, location, and price band with seller negotiations, repairs, and seller paid closing costs again.3. After many months of under-supply and soaring prices there is now a chip surplus.4. Tesla and Ford price cuts5. Lumber traded over $600 in June 2022 is now down over 16% around $500.6. Crude oil is down 30% from $115 to about $80.7. Over-stocked retail is now on sale.8. Wage growth is slowing.9. Whole Foods is reportedly asking suppliers to help the chain lower grocery prices. US December inflation was down over 28.5% in just 6 months around 6.5%. The Fed’s preferred measure, Core PCE inflation rose 4.4% from a year ago, its smallest annual increase since October 2021. Consumer spending dipped 0.2%. Thousands have lost jobs. Update November 2023 While many predict a crash in southern California, in reality the San Diego real estate markets have been all about cash!  The amount of mostly cash or all cash deals is staggering. The primary reason is the transfer of generational wealth with 1/3 of first time home buyers getting down payment assistance from family. Family wealth has accumulated with the exponential growth of equity markets over the last 10 years, tax cuts like the estate tax exemption, moves to lower cost of living states, and leverage - borrow money at 7% invest in a CD at 5% that's only a 2% difference.Did you know that less than five million people have federal flood insurance. Around 30% of homes have policies even in high risk communities. Regular insurance policies don’t cover flooding and we know surprise flooding can happen. Will house prices drop in San Diego 2024? It's unlikely San Diego housing prices in the will drop next year in 2024 and highly likely prices will have increased over 2023. Is San Diego in a housing bubble? The 2005 bubble was a combination of irresponsible borrowing, high-risk lending, and rampant loan fraud.  Loan underwriting over the past 13-14 years has been responsible and prudent, mortgage rates are less than half of what they were in 05, and we have an imbalance of for-sale homes and demand. Homeowners need three factors to be evident in order to make the difficult decision to walk away from their home and let it go into foreclosure (creating a housing bubble). 1. They need to expect that they'll never be able to afford this mortgage payment. 2. They need to be upside down, owe more on the loan than the house is worth. 3. They need to expect that they'll never be able to sell the house.Demand is the factor to understand when predicting future foreclosure.  There is record equity growing each day and homeowners can sell within days to 2 weeks. San Diego Real Estate Research real estate market trends and find San Diego real estate.  Search for newly listed homes, open houses, recently sold homes, and recent price reductions in San Diego County. To change how the search is displayed, click the gray button next to "Sort" to display houses by price, number of bedrooms, or days on the market. *Be sure to register for a free account so that you can receive email updates whenever new San Diego properties come on the market and if you're in the market for a home today, reach out for our exclusive off MLS pocket listings! Available San Diego HomesThere are two kinds of booming housing markets that emerged during the pandemic years:1. The Transitory Boom Markets.2. The Longterm Boom Markets.They are different. Let's explore both. 1. The Transitory Boom MarketsWhen COVID hit hard, many people re-evaluated - often hastily - where and how they wanted to live. Some of these people were highly reactionary expecting the very worst and an extended  global meltdown. Many immediately surmised that viral infection and death rates would be far higher in urban centers where the concentration of people was higher. This theory proved to be inaccurate. Some surmised that they could only live forever on a farm or a beach cottage or mountain hut without ever having explored that lifestyle. Many of these reactionaries have sinces realized their thoughts and aspirations were out of touch with their reality and they are re-visiting where they wish to live yet again. Some markets that experienced this insurgence of a new audience were unprepared and under-supplied and home prices surged at levels few thought sustainable. Some of these areas will erode some or most of these gains of the past 2 years.2.  The Longterm Boom MarketsCOVID also triggered something that had been missing in the markets: the urgency to accelerate plans that had been mulled over but not acted on for some time:  retirement, a move to the suburbs, a move to a city, or smaller city, a move for political reasons, a move for lower state taxation, a move to a warmer or cooler climate, etc. These moves, while accelerated, causing exaggerated home price spikes, are less susceptible to big price declines. I'd suspect this arena re-balances, but with much less vigor than other markets and it's possible these areas may continue to see price appreciation, mostly fueled by under-supply, but equally by continued, growing demand.This is but one more reason to examine markets individually in a hyper-localized housing world. Speaking of inflation: it's nothing new. It - and other kinds of inflation (LUXE-FLATION) - have impacted our markets for decades. Right now it is very high fueled by explosive demand out of balance with supply chain recovery issues, under-production of energy resources, labor shortages, lots of cheap capital....and rampantly rising rents fueled by under-building. The real estate market forecast shows signs of a somewhat slower bloom. Accounts of less crowded open houses, fewer private showing requests, longer days on market, and fewer offers on new listings are becoming more common. Due to the inherent time lag from a buyer's offer acceptance to a successful close of escrow, we are unlikely to see any significant statistical changes in the market until later in Q3. When an overheated market starts to lose steam, (last seen in both 2020 and 2016), leading indicators start to reflect the shift with fewer multiple offers, gradual increases in available inventory and days on market, and a plateau of year-over-year appreciation rates. As we've seen in prior downturns, after the downturn runs it's course, home prices begin to accelerate often quickly above the previous peaks. Buyers should be ready to take advantage of a slowing market and sellers it's more important than ever to prepare your home to shine in it's best light and price correctly. 2023 Statistics and Forecast San Diego buyers are worried are they are buying at the top? San Diego sellers are worried have they missed the top, is it too late? Property Shark just published their top 100 list of the most expensive housing markets with Rancho Santa Fe #18 followed by Coronado and Del Mar. As of December 4th nationwide initial job claims were 184,000, virtually the same as pre-COVID (a great indicator of the overall economy) San Diego County is up 61,600 jobs since last October with leisure and hospitality jobs still lagging pre-Covid levels. The nationwide unemployment rate will end the year at around 4%. Since November 2020, resale prices in San Diego County have advanced by 18.5%, following a pattern of recent months. With low cost of borrowing and high equity, right now is a really good time to move up and keep your prior primary as a rental property. This trend has played into inventory falling each year, year over year. Construction costs are out of control with a labor shortage. Lumber prices have increased to more than $1,000 per 1,000 board feet from $300 per 1,000 board feet. Fixtures like plumbing, lighting, and appliances are stuck on ships (most are manufactured overseas.) More than 1.7 million units of new single family residences, condos, and apartments were underway in 2021 with the highest production level since the last great recession. 2022 expects production of 1.5M-1.7M units with a return to more normal once backlogs are filled. The recently approved Federal Public Works legislation will contribute to a significant increase in non residential construction primarily in the public sector. 6.46 million existing single family homes and condomiums sold in 2021, a decade high with the supply reduced to 3.1 months. Residential real estate purchases made by investors were surprisingly high with more than a quarter of homes sold to investors in 2021. With a very very tight supply of available homes and mortgage rates rising, resales will decline to between 5M-5.5M.When the Feds begin to increase the discount rate, there will be an immediate effect on the 10-year T-bill. The 10-year T-bill determines mortgage rates. It's expected mortgage interest rates will be 3.75%-4% by the end of 2022. With increasing home prices affordability will be affected. Residential new construction for San Diego in 2022 will add approximately 9,000 housing units. The nonresidential sector will be explosive with government-funded projects: New Terminal 1 at the airport New border crossing in Otay Mesa Continued military spending Highway construction. Continued development of life sciences and industrial space 2021 we had an average of 2.75% 30 year fixed mortgage rates, $842,000 median single-family home price, an increase of 18.6%. Condos and townhomes $545,176 median home price and an increase of 18.5%.  Home price appreciation for San Diego County is anticipated to be 8%.

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