Raise your hand if you expected this outcome. Put your hand down. Between the five takeaways and two podcasts on this single game, I feel pretty confident you have all of the extrapolation you need from me on how it went down. So let’s just jump in and look at the numbers then, eh?
Advanced Box Score
This was a pretty even performance across the board. Oklahoma had clear advantages in yards per play and running the ball while Mizzou had advantages in points per opportunity, passing the ball, and - the big one! - turnovers.
When Missouri Has the Ball
Missouri’s Offense vs. Oklahoma’s Defense
I’m still not convinced of Eli Drinkwitz’s alleged “body blow” theory of offensive management in this game, wherein he and Kirby schemed up a ton of runs they knew would go nowhere in order to soften the Sooner defense up for bigger passing plays later in the game. It feels a lot like revisionist history for a boxer who spent the first five rounds getting repeatedly decked in the face and, after a late round surprise knock out, say that it was the plan all along to get repeatedly smashed in the kisser. But, whether or not the strategy was intentional, Mizzou did register bigger plays as the game wore on and came away with the victory. I feel like this is an obvious statement but I’ll say it anyway: you can get away with that when the opposing offense is as bad as Oklahoma’s, but not with anyone else left on the schedule.
Pass to Win
Oklahoma’s defense is good enough that there wasn’t much Mizzou could consistently do to move the ball, but I thought a 40% success rate passing the ball would be the trick. Mizzou finished with a 33.3% success rate, which is below both their season average to date and Oklahoma’s allowed to date (both were at 39%).
Winner: Oklahoma
Generate Explosives
It was the only real weakness this defense had so the goal was at least 10 explosive plays. Mizzou finished the game with:
Q2: Pass from Drew Pyne to Theo Wease for 19 yards
Q4: Pass from Drew Pyne to Theo Wease for 28 yards
Q4: Pass from Drew Pyne to Luther Burden III for 33 yards
That’s it! Luckily it was enough.
Winner: Oklahoma
FINISH. YOUR. DANG. DRIVES.
The goal was 8 scoring opportunities with at least 3.5 points per opportunity to get to 24 total points and Mizzou finished with 6 scoring opportunities and a robust 5 points per scoring opportunity for 30 total points. That is the most points they’ve scored in regulation against a P4 opponent all year. Against Oklahoma. With a backup quarterback.
Winner: Missouri
When Oklahoma Has the Ball
Missouri’s Defense vs. Oklahoma’s Offense
Oklahoma’s best passer was the punter, their best runner was a third-string freshmen that they didn’t deploy until the last drive, and the only touchdown pass came when the running back threw it to the quarterback. Credit former Mizzou tight ends coach Joe Jon Finley for the creativity-via-desperation, but it was not a good night for his charges. I mean, how often does a 5-star quarterback at a blue blood school throw for 66 yards in 24 attempts?
HAVOC!
I would have been pleased with at least a 28% havoc rate which Mizzou was one more havoc play away from getting. As it is, they were plenty havoc-y on the night to achieve the goal in spirit, at least.
Winner: Missouri (in spirit)
TURNOVERS!
I cited Oklahoma’s extreme turnover luck and how it could come crashing down at any moment, thus leading to my proposal of at least +2 in turnover margin. That was met with this comment...
Missouri was +1 in turnover margin heading into this game
...and Mizzou promptly finished +3 in turnover margin, recovering 5 of the 8 fumbles on the night. Thank you, Jackson Arnold, and your tiny, slimy, baby hands.
Winner: Missouri
The Little Things
“The Little Things” Report Card
Demerits
This is why I harp on “The Little Things” and, specifically finishing drives, so much. Mizzou and Oklahoma were essentially evenly matched in most facets of the game. The difference was that Oklahoma kicked three field goals in their six opportunities while Mizzou scoring chances ended with a punt, a field goal, and four touchdowns. Math wins again!
Meanwhile: I don’t wish to alarm you, but Mizzou is 4-0 in games where they are called for more penalties than their opponent and 3-2 in games where they’re called for fewer penalties than their opponents. Clearly these two things are 100% correlated and I, for one, will proudly lead the charge of “actually hold on every play”. For victory.
...but seriously, special teams did not have a great day and were responsible for five of the eight penalties Mizzou received.
Extra Points
Success Rate by Quarter
I want you to look at this break down of success rate by quarter, and pair it with the yards per quarter...
What quarter did the yards happen?
...and remind yourself that, apparently, this was done on purpose. I get playing with a backup quarterback and a bunch of injuries both before and during the game makes offense difficult but I still find the “this is how we planned it” hard to believe.
What down did the yards happen?
We all know Mizzou did much better in 3rd-down situations than Oklahoma did but this chart really hits that home. Whereas the Tigers managed to gain more yards on 3rd-down than any other down, the Sooner produced the fewest amount of yards than any other down. Might be why they went 5-15 while Mizzou went 11-19, huh?
First Downs Gained
Marcus Carroll continues to be the guy for converting yardage for a 1st down, but with Nate Noel sidelined by injury, Jamal Roberts is slowly becoming a reliable options as well. And, of course, with a backup quarterback playing the entire game, Mr. Drew Pyne and his various connections added some 1st-downs to the tally as well.
Conclusion
Beating Oklahoma is always cool, I don’t care how good or bad either team is when it happens. Doing so with yet another series of memorable plays and with so many backups pitching in during the closing efforts makes it even more special in hearts and minds.
But there’s still three games left, and none of them are easy (and two are on the road). If Eli Drinkwitz wants to turn his soap box promotion of Mizzou as a Playoff contender into reality then he needs to find a way to win all three games, and probably in super convincing fashion.
If he’s true to his word, this could be a fascinating closing stretch to the season.
Oh, and before I forget...Oklahoma sucks.
