We're a week from pitchers and catchers reporting, so this is the worst idea I have had since joining Twitter 15 years ago. Please pray for me.
The Seattle Mariners open the season March 27 at home versus the Pitbull of MLB teams, the Athletics. A lot will change between now and then, but that’s not going to stop me from projecting the Opening Day roster. Today. Here. Right now. On February 5. Three weeks from the birthdays of J.T. Snow, Dylan Crews, Dustin Ackley, Grover Alexander, and Kelly Gruber, as well as some goober that hosts a podcast.
Let’s digress.
The vast majority of the players about to be mentioned will be no surprise and an easy prediction for the opener. A very small handful of spots, however, are up for, well, discussion at least.
“Spring Battles” are not a real thing, since the term suggests the player that performs the best in a knee-high sample in Peoria will win the job, but decisions will be made in Arizona that haven’t yet, primarily because the reason there’s a decision to be made hasn’t presented itself yet.
NOTE: Spring statistics mean zero. Stop it.
Injuries can and probably will change these projections, and already are a factor below.
Here’s 1.0.
ROTATION (5)
Logan Gilbert, RH
Luis Castillo, RH
George Kirby, RH
Bryce Miller, RH
Bryan Woo, RH
There’s zero room for anyone else in the organization to break through here, so barring injury or an early-season six-arm approach this will be the starting rotation when the season begins.
And yes, Gilbert is listed first above because I think he should get the nod to throw the first pitch of the season for the Mariners.
BULLPEN (8)
Andrés Muñoz, RH
Gregory Santos, RH
Collin Snider, RH
Trent Thornton, RH
Troy Taylor, RH
Tayler Saucedo, LH
Gabe Speier, LH
Eduard Bazardo, RH
Matt Brash will not be ready for Opening Day — the club’s expectation in the second half of April — and despite a reported lat strain for Taylor, unless there’s a setback or further injury he’s part of the projection. Grade 1 lat strains tend to last around two weeks. If Taylor isn’t in Cactus League games the first week or so of March, the odds he’s ready for the opener decrease significantly.
If the club has to reach for arms, the options include winter pickups Hagen Danner, Will Klein, Shintaro Fujinami, and Drew Pomeranz. The latter two are non-roster invitees, making them somewhat less likely.
Cody Bolton, who opened 2024 on the 26-man, may have the inside track.
Prospect Brandyn Garcia could be considered, despite spending his pro career as a starter through last season. He profiles as a power reliever, touching 98 mph and flashing a plus slider. Fellow lefty Peyton Alford could earn a look, too.
Jackson Kowar is expected to be throwing this spring, but his availability for Opening Day is yet to be determined after he had UCL surgery last March.
In the case of some semblance of a six-man rotation to start the season — which could come as a result of reliever injuries — Emerson Hancock is the lead candidate to start the season in the bullpen and make a few spot starts the first month or so.
CATCHERS (2)
Cal Raleigh
Mitch Garver
Unless the Mariners end up trading Garver, injuries are all that can change this prior to the start of the season.
The next options include Blake Hunt, Nick Raposo, and Jacob Nottingham. Hunt is the only one of the group on the 40-man roster.
INFIELDERS (6)
J.P. Crawford, SS
Dylan Moore, 2B
Jorge Polanco, 3B
Donovan Solano, 1B/3B
Luke Raley, 1B/OF
Nick Dunn, 2B
Austin Shenton, 1B
Who, you might ask, is Nick Dunn? Well, if Moore is the regular second baseman, there’s no other viable defender at second base on the roster without Ryan Bliss or Dunn. Bliss has one edge right now — he’s on the 40-man. Dunn, however, projects for more consistent gap power and a lot more contact.
Bliss has a speed and defense advantage, and I’d roll with Bliss, but considering the front office’s talk about more contact — and then not doing much over the winter to fix it — Dunn, who was picked up on a minor league deal, has a shot.
Ideally, Seattle adds an experienced veteran who can play a good second base and offer something at the plate. Jose Iglesias is the best free agent that fits this bill.
Leo Rivas and Miles Mastrobuoni also are on the 40-man and could get some consideration. Mastrobuoni, 29, has a career .219/.279/.263 slash in 272 PAs in the big leagues, so there’s no bat here, and probably should be the emergency option only.
Sam Haggerty signed with the Texas Rangers.
Raley, as the roster is currently constructed, is likely to get time as the first baseman versus right-handed pitching, but also could see the OF on occasion, as well as DH.
Right now there does not appear to be a clear spot for the re-acquired Shenton, who made the Opening Day roster a year ago for the Tampa Bay Rays, but I’m running with an extra infielder and just four outfielders, since Raley and Moore both can help in the grass.
Shenton’s a lefty stick with enough glove at third to warrant being a secondary option and brings above-average power and good on-base skills to the ballpark daily.
Handedness played a role in choosing Shenton over Tyler Lockler. As the roster changes, so could this choice.
OUTFIELDERS
Randy Arozarena
Julio Rodriguez
Victor Robles
Mitch Haniger (DH)
I don’t anticipate a lot of outfield chances for Haniger, which could help him stay fresh, which could help him at the plate. He still has good bat speed, draws walks and hits the ball hard (45.9% hard hit, 74th percentile Average EV in 2024) but didn’t lift the ball enough last season (36.5% FB, down from 42.2% the previous four seasons), and batted just .222 versus fastballs with a lot of swing-and-miss, both versus heaters (27.6% whiff) and strikeouts on the year (just under 30%).
Arozarena isn’t good defensively, but Robles and Rodriguez are, so the outfield defense is a significant improvement over last year’s Haniger-Rodriguez-Dom Canzone (with a mix of Raley) alignment we saw early.
Robles is the leading candidate to lead off.
FIRST TOP 20 PROSPECTS UP
Cole Young, 2B/SS
Harry Ford, C
Locklear, 1B
Garcia, LHR
Logan Evans, RHS
Michael Morales, RHS
Ben Williamson, 3B
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