Democrat Annie Andrews gets fresh odds of flipping South Carolina Senate seat as Lindsey Graham’s Trump-backed sister Darline wins Republican primary

Democrat Annie Andrews will face Republican Darline Graham in November for a South Carolina Senate seat left vacant by the death of longtime Sen. Lindsey Graham, with Democrats hoping that a difficult race can become competitive amid declining support for President Donald Trump. Andrews, who secured the Democratic nomination in June, argues that economic concerns and an anti-incumbency mood could give Democrats an opening in a state with a strong Republican record — one that was carried by Trump by 18 points in 2024.

Darline Graham wins GOP nomination

Darline — who’s Lindsey’s sister and a Trump-backed candidate — won the Republican primary with roughly 52% of the vote. The Associated Press called the win for her at 9:01 p.m. ET on Tuesday, August 25. Trump endorsed Darline after Republican Gov. Henry McMaster appointed her to temporarily fill her brother’s seat following his death on July 11 from an aortic dissection.

Lindsey, who had represented South Carolina in the Senate since 2003, had already won the Republican nomination for reelection, but his sudden passing required the party to hold a special primary election.

Annie Andrews sees an opening

Andrews acknowledged the state’s Republican lean but argued that the political environment has changed. “We’ve had a steady increase in our fundraising. We’re feeling really good about the grassroots aspect of our fundraising and building our war chest and getting us ready to compete against whoever emerges from this Republican primary,” she said earlier in August.

She argued at the time that Republican candidates have been racing “to the right” to demonstrate loyalty to Trump while failing to adequately address issues such as gas prices. “In this environment, this change election, this anti-incumbency environment, people are looking for political outsiders,” she said.

Prediction markets still favor Republicans

Prediction markets remain heavily tilted toward Republicans. As of Tuesday, Kalshi gave Republicans about an 88% chance of retaining the seat, while Polymarket put the figure at 87%. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball also classify the contest as solid or safe Republican.

According to reports, polls remain scarce following Lindsey’s death. Prior to his death, an internal poll conducted by Impact Research among 700 likely voters surveyed June 17-22 showed the then-senator leading Andrews 48% to 45%. A more recent internal poll released by Andrews’ campaign also showed a tight race, although it was not backed up by public independent surveys. 

South Carolina could be an uphill battle for Democrats

South Carolina has not elected a Democratic senator since Ernest Hollings won in 1998 and has consistently backed Republican presidential candidates. Trump won the state by 18 points in 2024, nearly 12 points in 2020 and 14 points in 2016.

Yet Democrats argue Trump’s declining popularity could alter the map. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday, August 24, found 65% nationally disapproved of Trump’s performance, compared with 33% who approved. In South Carolina, a Civiqs poll showed Trump at 42% approval and 51% disapproval as of Monday.

Democrats therefore see an opportunity to compete in territory that has historically remained reliably Republican, although current forecasts continue to give Darline a substantial advantage over Andrews heading into November.