Democrat Troy Jackson edges out Republican longtime incumbent Sen. Susan Collins in new Maine Senate race poll

Democrat Troy Jackson is commanding a narrow lead over Republican longtime incumbent Sen. Susan Collins in a new CNN/SSRS poll, adding to a string of surveys showing a competitive contest in the Maine Senate race as Democrats attempt to flip the seat in November. Jackson led Collins 48% to 45% among likely voters in the poll released Wednesday, September 9, although the three-point advantage falls within the survey’s 3.7-point margin of error. The stakes are understandably high for Democrats in this particular Senate race as the path to reclaiming the chamber goes through Maine.

Troy Jackson holds narrow polling advantage

The CNN/SSRS poll surveyed 880 likely voters between August 31 and September 6. While Jackson’s lead is not statistically decisive, it continues a pattern seen in recent independent polling since he replaced Graham Platner as the Democratic nominee in July. According to reports, Jackson’s support was driven more by opposition to Collins than enthusiasm for his own candidacy, as 71% of his supporters said they were voting “against Collins,” while 74% of Collins’ supporters said they were voting “for” the incumbent.

Despite his narrow advantage in the CNN poll, Jackson remained underwater in favorability, with 42% viewing him unfavorably and 36% favorably. Collins was also 10 points underwater, with 51% unfavorable and 41% favorable.

Recent polls also show tight contest

Other surveys have similarly shown Jackson ahead. An Abacus Data poll conducted August 26-28 among likely voters gave him a nine-point lead, 52% to 43%, although Collins led 46% to 45% among all registered voters. A Fox News poll conducted August 6-10 showed Jackson ahead 48% to 46% among 1,000 registered voters, while a University of New Hampshire survey from July 15-20 put Jackson ahead 49% to 46%. Prediction markets also favored Jackson as of Wednesday, with Kalshi putting his chances at 68% and Polymarket at 72%.

Donald Trump looms over Maine race

The CNN poll found President Donald Trump deeply unpopular in Maine, with 67% disapproving of his performance and 31% approving. Voters are also confronting economic and cost-of-living concerns, tariffs on Canadian goods and potentially higher home-heating costs amid surging oil prices linked to the war in Iran.

While Maine backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points in 2024, Collins has repeatedly won reelection through her bipartisan image and personal popularity. Both The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball continue to rate the Senate race a toss-up.

Maine’s gubernatorial contest is considerably less competitive in the CNN poll, with Democrat Hannah Pingree leading Republican Bobby Charles 52% to 39%.

Troy Jackson emerged after Democratic turmoil

Jackson became the Democratic nominee after Platner withdrew amid sexual assault allegations, which he has denied.

Jackson, who initially ran for governor and lost the Democratic primary, secured the required support to replace Platner in the general election following a July convention.