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Economic chaos underway, consumers see it, the numbers tell the story.
 There are fewer ships on the oceans today than a couple of months ago, a disturbing data point on the economy. That’s thanks to the U.S. Administration’s chaotic tariff posture. It seems clear that in the coming weeks, the Administration’s turbulent economic posture  will translate to significantly higher prices. And also dramatically less inventory available to American consumers. Consumers see it coming. Consumer sentiment has dropped to a historic low. The value of the U.S. dollar against foreign currencies has dropped, meaning everything we buy from aboard costs more, and when we travel, our money buys less. Investors Business Daily has a report today that China-to-North American shipping cancellations have reached 50%. Right now, container unloading in U.S. ports is higher than normal, due to a rush of advance orders meant to beat the tariffs. But the coming drop in shipping arrivals will far outpace the temporary increase. “Major ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach have recently seen increased activity as companies rushed goods before new tariffs. However, forward bookings indicate falling demand,†reports the British firm Containerlift. Those kinds of drops in cargo volume will economically hit American ports, trucking companies and trains before they impact store shelves and eventually consumers. It is not just imports to the U.S., but also exports from the U.S. American farmers are hit extremely hard. In the week of April 11-17, according to the USDA, pork exports were down 72%, soy down 50%, corn down 26%, cotton down 49%, beef down 41%. A few exports (rice, sorghum) were up, but the trend was way down. The World Trade Organization (WTO) anticipates by the end of the year a 12.6% drop in North American exports. U.S. manufacturing is down, and there are thousands of layoffs at manufacturing plants. None of this is good for our country. But other countries will continue to trade with each other without the direct impact of the American trade tariffs. That’s why, although the global economy is expected to be hit by the American trade chaos, it will be hit far less severely than the U.S. and its biggest direct trading partners. The WTO is estimating worldwide merchandise trade to take just a .2% hit. © Jan TenBruggencate 2025
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