The Battle For The Senate, 2026

From the beginning of this election cycle, the conventional wisdom was that Democrats, while favored to take control of the House, would come up just short in the battle for the Senate. They need a net pickup of four, and while there are more Republican seats up this year than Democratic — 22 to 13 — the GOP didn’t seem to have obviously vulnerable targets. But President Trump’s continuing slide in the polls could change that calculation, and the uncertainty out of Texas, Maine, South Carolina and Michigan makes any predictions this far out from November not entirely reliable. (The Senate currently stands at 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, which include two Dem-leaning Independents.)

Here’s a list of the states that have already held their Senate primaries and how it looks at this point, followed by a summation of the remaining primaries by a guest contributor:

MARCH 3:

Arkansas — Sen. Tom Cotton (R) is being challenged by Hallie Shoffner (D). POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Republican.

North Carolina — Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring. The candidates are former RNC chair Michael Whatley and ex-Dem Gov. Roy Cooper. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Democratic pickup.

Texas — Sen. John Cornyn (R), seeking a fifth term, was clobbered in the GOP runoff by state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was endorsed by Trump. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R) was eliminated in the initial primary. State Rep. James Talarico won a tough Democratic primary contest against Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Last Democrat to win a Texas Senate race: Lloyd Bentsen, re-elected in 1988. But Paxton’s cause is hurt by serious ethics and matrimonial challenges. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Tossup.

MARCH 10:

Mississippi — Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is being challenged by Scott Colom (D). POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Republican.

Illinois — Sen. Dick Durbin (D) is retiring. Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton won a Democratic primary that included Reps. Robin Kelly & Raja Krishnamoorthi. She will face former state GOP chair Don Tracy. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Democratic.

MAY 5:

Husted hopes to stop a comeback attempt by Sherrod Brown.

Ohio — Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) was appointed to fill the Senate seat of Vice President JD Vance (R). In this special election, he is facing former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat in 2024. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Leans Republican.

MAY 12:

Nebraska — Former Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Ben Sasse (R) in 2023 and won a special election the following year. This is for the full six-year term. Dan Osborn, an independent who gave Sen. Deb Fischer (R) a close run in 2024, is running again. The Democratic primary was won by Cindy Burbank, who said she would drop out after the primary and back Osborn, but she has yet to do so as of this date. The deadline for her to withdraw is Aug. 3rd. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Leans Republican.

West Virginia — Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) is being challenged by Rachel Fetty Anderson (D). POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Republican.

MAY 16:

Louisiana — Sen. Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump during his impeachment saga but who tried to make amends ever since — without success — finished in third place in the primary. With Cassidy gone, the June 27th runoff was won by Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow over state Treasurer John Fleming. Democratic nominee is Jamie Davis. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Republican.

MAY 19:

Alabama — Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is giving up the seat to run for governor. Rep. Barry Moore, endorsed by Trump, defeated former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson in a June 16th Republican runoff. State Attorney General Steve Marshall was eliminated in the initial primary. Everett Wess, an attorney, is the Democratic nominee. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Republican.

Georgia — The Republican primary to find a candidate to take on Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) was decided in a June 16th runoff. Rep. Mike Collins defeated former football coach Derek Dooley. Another congressman, Buddy Carter, was eliminated in the initial primary. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Tossup.

Idaho — Sen. Jim Risch (R) is being challenged by David Roth (D). POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Republican.

Kentucky — Sen. Mitch McConnell (R), who is currently in the hospital and the subject of numerous health-related rumors, had already announced his retirement. In the primary, Rep. Andy Barr, endorsed by Trump, easily defeated Daniel Cameron, the former state attorney general who ran for governor in 2023. Another GOP candidate, Nate Morris, quit the race to become an ambassador in the Trump administration. In the Democratic primary, Charles Booker, who lost to Sen. Rand Paul in 2022, defeated Amy McGrath, who lost to McConnell in 2020. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Republican.

Oregon — Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) is being challenged by David Brock Smith (R). POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Democratic.

JUNE 2:

Iowa — Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring. Rep. Ashley Hinson won the GOP primary and will face Josh Turek, a former paralympic athlete and choice of the party establishment who easily defeated Zach Wahls in the Democratic contest. A recent Fox News poll showed Turek leading Hinson 50-46%. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Tossup.

Montana — Republicans played some games here, as a heavily favored Sen. Steve Daines (R) decided to withdraw his candidacy minutes before the filing deadline, giving the advantage to ex-US Attorney Kurt Alme, who conveniently declared his candidacy moments before. Trump endorsed Alme shortly after. The move denied Republicans an opportunity to field a candidate to challenge Alme for the nomination. Alani Bankhead won the Democratic primary but many Dems are rallying behind the independent candidacy of Seth Bodnar, a former president of the University of Montana. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Republican.

New Jersey — Sen. Cory Booker (D), a once and possible future presidential hopeful, faces Justin Murphy (R). POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Democratic.

New Mexico — Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D) will face Larry Marker, who won the GOP primary as a write-in candidate. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Democratic.

South Dakota — Sen. Mike Rounds (R) is being challenged by Julian Beaudion (D). POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Republican.

JUNE 9:

Platner’s withdrawal may save Dem chances to defeat Susan Collins.

Maine — Where to begin? The Democratic establishment began the contest pushing the candidacy of Janet Mills, the (now) 78-year old governor. But progressives, with great enthusiasm and open checkbooks, instead backed Graham Platner, an oyster farmer, whose polling strength pushed Mills out well before the primary, which he won overwhelmingly. Then came controversies, none more serious than he was charged with rape by an ex-girlfriend, an accusation that drove him out of the race on July 8th. As Democrats prepare to come up with a substitute nominee, all Sen. Susan Collins, considered the most vulnerable Republican incumbent, can do is sit back and watch. Everyone agrees that Platner’s withdrawal keeps the Democratic hopes of finally unseating Collins alive. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Tossup.

South Carolina — Sen. Lindsey Graham, who won 57% of the Republican primary vote, died unexpectedly on July 11th. Two days later, Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nordone, to fill his seat as a caretaker; she is not going to run. Republicans are holding a special primary on Aug. 11th; already, Rep. Russell Fry is thought to be a leading candidate. Fry, with Trump’s endorsement, ousted GOP Rep. Tom Rice in the 2022 primary after Rice voted to impeach. The Democratic nominee is Annie Andrews, who lost to Rep. Nancy Mace in 2022. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Republican.

JUNE 16:

Oklahoma — This is a special election to fill the remaining two years of the seat formerly held by Markwayne Mullin (R), who resigned to become Trump’s homeland security secretary. Alan Armstrong (R) was appointed by the governor to fill the seat until the November election; he is not running to keep the seat. The Republican primary was won by Rep. Kevin Hern; Democrats pick their nominee in a late August runoff. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Republican.

JUNE 30:

Colorado — Sen. John Hickenlooper fended off a strong primary from his left, defeating Julie Gonzales 53-47. The GOP nominee is state Sen. Mark Baisley. POLITICAL JUNKIE CALL: Safe Democratic.

UPCOMING PRIMARIES — AS OF JULY 14

By Mike Rudin

I know what you’re thinking — how the heck did he get that sweet gig writing for The Political Junkie?! It wasn’t easy. First, I had to be a bona fide political junkie, which I am. And second, I had to grow up with Ken, which I did. If you have any problems with that, go complain to Luke Russert or Chris Cuomo. Or, better yet, Brendan Carr. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way …

With a little less than four months until the midterm elections, there are still Senate primaries to watch that could determine which party winds up with a majority. Between now and Sept. 15, primary voters in these 12 states will be choosing Senate nominees:

August 4: Virginia, Michigan, Kansas
August 6: Tennessee
August 11: Minnesota
August 18: Alaska, Florida, Wyoming

September 1: Massachusetts
September 8: New Hampshire

September 9: Rhode Island
September 15: Delaware

Of the 12 upcoming Senate primaries, the one that stands out the most is in Michigan on Aug. 4th. Circle this one in red Sharpie. Not too dissimilar to what we saw in Maine, New York and Colorado primaries, there is, for the Democrats, a genuinely nasty intra-party scrum that has real electability consequences. It pits Rep. Haley Stevens, the choice of the establishment (read: Chuck Schumer), vs. Abdul El-Sayed, a strong critic of Israel and backer of Palestinians who is the choice of the “democratic socialists” (for lack of a better description — read: Bernie Sanders/Zohran Mamdani). A third candidate, Mallory McMorrow, deciding she couldn’t make a difference, bowed out. Both sides argue that nominating the wrong candidate will hand the GOP a seat they haven’t won in Michigan since 1994. A Detroit News poll released 7/14 showed Stevens ahead, 48.2-41.4%; earlier polls had El-Sayed up. Republicans have rallied behind former Rep. Mike Rogers, who came within a whisker of defeating Elissa Slotkin (D) in the 2024 Senate contest as Trump was carrying the state by a point.

Another interesting primary occurs on Sept. 1st in Massachusetts. Sen. Ed Markey (D), who is 80, is being challenged by Rep. Seth Moulton, 47. Moulton is basically running on the same issue as then-Rep. Joe Kennedy III did when he (unsuccessfully) challenged Markey in the 2020 primary: age. Or, to put it more delicately, it’s time for new leadership. Markey holds narrow if steady leads in every poll. Regardless of who wins the primary, Democratic control is not thought to be at risk.

The last Republican to win a Senate seat in Mass. was Scott Brown, who captured Ted Kennedy’s seat in a special 2010 election but lost it 2-1/2 years later to Elizabeth Warren. Since then, he moved to New Hampshire, challenged Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in 2014, and narrowly lost. With Shaheen retiring, he’s running again this year, but faces tough odds in the 9/8 GOP primary from John E. Sununu, who was elected to the Senate in 2002 but lost his seat to then-Gov. Shaheen in 2008. While the Sununu name still carries weight in N.H. — his brother Chris and father John both served as governor — most polls say Democrats should retain the seat, but Sununu (assuming he wins the GOP primary) can’t be counted out. The frontrunner for the Democratic nomination appears to be Rep. Chris Pappas, who faces progressive challenger Karishma Manzur. The Republicans’ dream candidate was Chris Sununu, who left the governorship with high approval ratings, but he didn’t want to serve in the Senate.

Alaska is especially interesting because it holds ranked-choice contests, where the top four candidates, regardless of party, advance to November. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) is seeking re-election. The leading Democrat is former Rep. Mary Peltola, who lost her seat in 2024 by just three points in a state Trump won by 11. The primary is less of note than what happens in the general election. Democrats insist this race belongs on the watch list, and several polls have shown Peltola with a slight lead over Sullivan. But a New York Times poll out this month had Sullivan up by two percentage points. Definitely one to watch, and one Democrats must win if they are to take the Senate.

Other Senate primaries:

Virginia (Aug. 4): Sen. Mark Warner (D) seeking re-election.

Kansas (Aug. 4): Sen. Roger Marshall (R) seeking re-election.

Tennessee (Aug. 6): Sen. Bill Hagerty (R) seeking re-election.
Minnesota (Aug. 11): Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring. Democrats are experiencing an ideological battle between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and the more moderate Rep. Angie Craig. The Republican frontrunner appears to be Michele Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter. Her closest competition in the primary is Adam Schwarze, a former Navy SEAL.
Florida (Aug. 18); Ashley Moody, the state attorney general, was appointed to the Senate by Gov. Ron DeSantis following Marco Rubio leaving to become secretary of state. Democrats will choose between leading candidates Alex Vindman, the whistleblower in the Trump-Ukraine scandal that led to the president’s first impeachment, and Angie Nixon, a state rep.

Wyoming (Aug. 18): Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) is retiring. Rep. Harriet Hageman, who knocked off Rep. Liz Cheney in 2022, is the clear GOP frontrunner.

Rhode Island (Sept. 9): Sen. Jack Reed (D) seeking re-election.
Delaware (Sept. 15): Sen. Chris Coons (D) seeking re-election.

Thoughts? Questions? Complaints? Want to know family secrets? Write to me at [email protected].

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Q: You played a clip of Charlie Kirk in a recent podcast calling for Joe Biden to receive the death penalty. Can you post a link? — Steve Weaver

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LAST LIVE BROADCAST/PODCAST: Anne P. Mitchell’s “My Country, Tis of Thee” (July 9, with video); WOSU’s “All Sides with Amy Juravich” (July 9). You can click on these links to hear the shows.

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This Day In Political History: One day after officially becoming the Democratic presidential nominee, former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter announces that Sen. Walter Mondale of Minnesota will be his running mate (July 15, 1976).