(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Trump Trade Critics Who Literally Can’t Count

The New York Times and the Washington Post often set the tone for U.S. elite opinion, and since elite opinion sadly keeps influencing popular opinion. So it matters that both news organizations have recently run articles claiming that President Trump’s tariffs haven’t achieved one of their prime goals – reducing the U.S. trade deficit.

What should matter, though, is that these claims are completely baseless.

Here’s the Post’s more recent position – in an unsigned editorial that came out two days ago:

“In July, the monthly trade deficit in goods hit its highest level since March 2025, the Commerce Department revealed on Thursday. That was the month before President Donald Trump’s announcement last year of massive tariffs on products from nearly every country in the world.”

But even the Post editorial writers who made this statement apparently realize that one month’s worth of data does not a trend make – or even close.  So they included this chart, which supposedly proves their assertion over a longer run for U.S. goods trade (which has been subject to all Mr. Trump’s second term tariffs):

And on August 27, former Obama administration official Steve Rattner and Times Contributing Writer posted this on X.com:

“Excluding the pre-Liberation Day bounce where companies increased imports ahead of expected tariffs, last month registered the worst U.S. trade deficit on record. 

“More evidence that Trump’s blanket tariffs have failed on their own terms.”

Rattner also emphasized the July figures, and included his own chart:

But here’s what the official numbers actually show.

Between 2023 and 2024 – the final year of the relatively tariff-lite Biden administration – the annual U.S. goods trade deficit rose by 14.68 percent, from $1.057509 trillion to $1.212786 trillion.  

Between 2024 and 2025 – the first year of the much more tariff-heavy Trump administration, the goods deficit increased to $1.259620 trillion.  That’s another increase, but one of a much slower 3.86 percent.  This progress, moreover, was made despite the massive surge in importing during the first three months of the year by companies trying to front run upcoming Trump tariffs. 

This year so far (through the June’s latest official figures), the goods deficit is $541.849 billion.  If it advances at the same rate through December, the total annual trade gap would be $1.083698 trillion (twice as high).    

The Post and Rattner are right that the monthly goods deficit for July is a high $118.8 billion according to advance figures released this past week by the U.S. Census Bureau.  

But if that figure holds, and through the end of the year, the trade shortfall rises at thet resulting seven-month pace  – guess what.  That means that the full-year, 2026 trade gap would be $1.132541 trillion.  And when I went to school, that total was less than 2025’s $1.259620 trillion.  In fact, it’s 11.22 percent less.  

The Post and The Times and Steve Rattner have every right to criticize President Trump’s trade policies (or any other policies).  But their readers have every right to ask why they should trust analysts who apparently can’t do simple arithmetic.