Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos preview, picks, and predictions

The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs kicks off on Saturday afternoon with an AFC showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos. Buffalo is playing its second straight road game after prevailing at Jacksonville this past Sunday. Denver earned a first-round bye as the No. 1 seed in the conference after winning the AFC West.

Let’s dive into my Bills vs. Broncos predictions.

Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos odds

Money line: Bills +100 / Broncos -120
Spread: Bills +1.5 (-110) / Broncos -1.5 (-118)
Total: Over 46.5 (-105) / Under 46.5 (-115)

Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos best bet #1: Under 46.5 (-115)

I don’t have a lot of faith in either side. Buffalo is banged up, while Denver lacks playoff experience. Instead, the under looks more appealing — as neither offense inspires a ton of confidence. Josh Allen is obviously a force under center, but the Bills lost wide receiver Gabe Davis to a torn ACL last weekend and their pass-catching corps was already unspectacular. Now they have to face a Broncos defense that in the regular season ranked No. 2 overall in the NFL, No. 3 in scoring, No. 7 against the pass, No. 2 in yards per pass attempt allowed, No. 2 against the run, and No. 1 in sacks. 

Fortunately for the visitors, they should be in good shape on defense. Buffalo held its final three regular-season opponents to a combined 41 points and limited Jacksonville to 24 after the Jaguars were consistently scoring more than 30 week after week. Denver’s offense has never been its strength and it has been even worse since running back J.K. Dobbins went down with a foot injury in Week 10. After that development, the Broncos’ EPA per rush metrics dipped from No. 14 to No. 25 in the league. Although Bo Nix has played well for the most part, he can’t be trusted in a big-time playoff situation. Only 38 points were scored when these two teams tangled in the wild-card round last year, and another relatively low-scoring affair could be in the cards.

Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos best player prop bet: Josh Allen Over 35.5 rushing yards (-115)

The Broncos’ defense is very good, but this is not a bad matchup for Allen in terms of his ability to rack up rushing yards. Denver led the league in sacks by a mile, so Allen will likely have to do a lot of improvising in the backfield. In addition to the designed runs that are called, the Wyoming product will surely be forced to tuck it and run after aborting pass plays, thus increasing his total number of carries. Denver ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs during the regular season. 
 
Allen has had double-digit rushing attempts in three straight playoff games. The former NFL MVP has rushed for at least 39 yards in four of his last six postseason appearances, and he rushed for 38 yards or more in four of his last six regular-season outings. In the biggest game of the season to date, count on Allen once again taking matters into his own hands.

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